OPINION: Those Fluttering, Stuttering Polls

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George Gallup, now 74, is still somewhat startled by the virtual evaporation of Carter's once-commanding lead, the largest such loss his organization has ever reported for a presidential candidate. Now Gallup sees indications that "Carter may be recouping his losses." The polls have "fluttered and stuttered," he says, because neither candidate has much stature in the minds of the voters —a fact that Gallup believes may result in an extremely low voter turnout next month. He argues that while Carter was seen as a conservative in the primaries, he appears more liberal when pitted against Ford. Says Gallup: "We are finding a strong trend to the conservative position not just in the U.S. but in the entire Western world." Gallup also thinks television, which shows both candidates "doing uninteresting things day after day," has turned off many voters and left others undecided.

Inner Conflict. Yankelovich stresses that a few days' difference in the polls can account for sizable variations. He also contends that there are two types of electorates: one that makes its mind up and stays put, as in 1972, when 60% of the voters had decided to support Richard Nixon before Labor Day; and the 1976 voters, who "are very unsure," torn by "inner conflicts" and who thus respond to a Ford gaffe one day, a Carter gaffe the next. "People are uneasy about Carter and find Ford an acceptable alternative," says Yankelovich. He emphasizes, as do Gallup and Harris, that polls are not supposed to predict future results. "The figures can only tell you how the voters feel at a given moment in time," he says, and the voters may not feel that way on Election Day.

Harris, who agrees with Gallup that the winner may well be determined by the size of the voter turnout, notes that polls have been marked less by zigzagging than by a persistent Carter decline. But the situation is so fluid that he plans to continue polling through Oct. 31 or even Nov. 1, the day before the election. "I feel that this election will be very close right down to the wire," says Harris. "But I don't think we are helpless in finding out what's going on."

Harris is undoubtedly correct. But a skeptical electorate can be depended upon to baffle the pollsters—and the politicians—until the ballots that will allow for no further shifting of views are counted the night of Nov. 2.