Business: Carter Considers a Gas Tax

Despite some tough consequences, a promise of benefits at home and abroad

One of the most discouraging aspects of the Iranian crisis is how little it has moved the U.S. Government to counter the energy threat by taking dramatic action to conserve oil. Not only does the trauma in Tehran threaten at any moment to choke off deliveries of nearly 3 million bbl. of crude per day to an oil-thirsty world, but it increasingly jeopardizes petroleum supplies throughout the Middle East. U.S. Government officials calculate that a widespread upheaval in the Persian Gulf could quickly cut U.S. imports by 4 million bbl. per day, or more than 22% of total consumption. On another front, the 13-nation OPEC cartel, which has raised petroleum prices by some 1,600% since 1970, is preparing to lift prices yet again when it meets next week in Caracas. Meanwhile Congress continues to dither and quibble over President Carter's five-month-old energy package.

But there was a small glimmer of hope in Washington last week. Showing welcome signs of moving more directly and forcefully to curb energy use, the White House was considering a high federal excise tax on gasoline, perhaps as much as 50¢ per gal.

Gasoline consumption is the root cause of the nation's petro-woes, and any move to curtail it substantially would have broad and deep economic consequences. Though rising prices and the slowing economy have cut gasoline use by 4.7% this year, the fuel still accounts for just under 40% of the 18 million bbl. of oil that the U.S. burns each day. The Administration estimates that an immediate 50¢ boost in the cost of gasoline, which now sells at an average for all grades of $1.04 per gal., would cut consumption by 7%, the equivalent of about 500,000 bbl. of crude per day.

Though advocates of continued price controls often dispute the point, evidence proves that rising gasoline prices reduce consumption. Studies by Economist Alan Greenspan and others show that when prices go up 10%, gas sales from 1.5% to 2% per licensed driver. Argues Greenspan, "It is clear that a very large part of the driving public consciously or unconsciously is quite sensitive to price."

A cut in consumption of the size that would result from a 50¢ per gal. tax would pay important dividends both domestically and internationally. In the U.S. it would amount to an immediate and forceful warning to all Americans that energy conservation is now a national imperative. Overseas it would help loosen the world market for petroleum, make it at least somewhat more difficult for OPEC to raise prices, reduce prices on the spot market and send a signal to the U.S.'s increasingly skeptical allies that the nation is exercising leadership to curb energy use. Even with a 50¢ tax, Americans would still have a comparatively easy ride; most Europeans, Japanese and other non-Americans pay $2 or more for the fuel.

A big gasoline tax would be about the nation's strongest weapon, short of rationing. Under a timid law passed in October, rationing cannot be imposed until either Congress approves it or the President is able to declare that the nation faces an immediate threat of a 20% oil-supply shortfall. By that time waiting lines at service stations probably would reach to the horizon. Even then, Congress could overrule the President and block rationing.