Looking For a Way Out

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McFarlane's pep talk temporarily soothed the Republicans, but unless substantial progress is made by Gemayel, White House aides expect Congress to begin an urgent review of U.S. policy in Lebanon as soon as it reconvenes on Jan. 23. Says Democratic Congressman G.V. ("Sonny") Montgomery of Mississippi, an influential hawk: "The way I read it, both sides—Democrats and Republicans—will give the President until the first of March to get something done." If Reagan cannot show results, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee might pass a resolution demanding a Marine pullout by April 1. To get around a possible veto, the lawmakers might push for a nonbinding sense-of-Congress resolution against the stationing of Marines in Beirut.

Either way, the prospect is unsettling for the White House. Even if Reagan successfully vetoed the congressional action, his victory would be Pyrrhic. Matters probably would not get that far: the Administration has decided not to expend much more political capital defending its policy. Although Reagan publicly appears to be dug in on his Lebanese policy, advisers privately say that he is actively looking for an exit, even if it means abandoning Gemayel. Promised a top adviser: "If Don Rumsfeld comes back and says there is no way Gemayel can put everything together, Reagan will say let's get out."

But if the security accord is approved, the President will have gained merely a little more time to study his options, not a full license to keep the Marines in Beirut through the election year. White House aides dismiss the possibility of a complete pullout right away, saying it would cause the Gemayel government to fall and lead to the permanent partitioning of Lebanon. At the same time, the aides are increasingly skeptical about the possibility of moving the troops away from the Beirut airport. To begin with, any redeployment would be discussed with Congress, which would only inflame the debate over whether the Marines should be in the country at all. By keeping the Marines at the airport, the Administration would have a polite way to turn down Gemayel's request that troops be stationed with the Lebanese Army as it pushes down the coastal highway. But even the most apolitical policymakers know that the days of the Marine contingent in Lebanon are numbered. "In a few months, if the trends seem positive, then that will be the time we can say O.K., now we can leave in good conscience," says a State Department official. If, on the other hand, another slash of violence bloodies the Marines, the men could be home in days. Jesse Jackson got one U.S. serviceman out last week. President Reagan has a much harder task: getting the other 1 ,800 out. — James Kelly.

Reported by Douglas Brew/Washington and William Stewart/Beirut

With reporting by Douglas Brew/Washington and William Stewart/Beirut

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