Nation: But Can Reagan Be Elected?

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Yankelovich believes that the American electorate has already shown a predisposition to replace Carter. This was manifested in the early eagerness for a Kennedy candidacy, which proved so disappointing when it became a reality. The brief bubbling of support for a Ford candidacy was part of the same feeling. If popular unhappiness with domestic and world problems finally comes to rest at Carter's doorstep, voters may begin to see all sorts of previously invisible virtues in Ronald Reagan.

Not only does Reagan face a weakened President, he also presents a less frightening prospect than the apparently more reckless Goldwater. Says TIME Washington Bureau Chief Robert Ajemian: "To many people, Reagan is reassuring, almost parental. He is too fatalistic and too modest to be a crusader."

So far in this campaign, Reagan has done little to damage that image. Says Florida National Committeewoman Paula Hawkins, a John Connally supporter: "He has been dignified, professional under stress. He responds well when he gets punched. He's gentlemanly, answers with humor and with enough acid to let you know he has heard."

Reagan cannot hope to win, however, unless he moves beyond the hard-line conservative base that has sustained him since he first appeared on the national political scene as a spokesman for Goldwater himself. He has no experience in Washington politics or foreign affairs. Both Congress and the federal bureaucracy are as unfathomable to him as they were to Carter. Indeed one of Reagan's major supporters in the Senate notes that the Californian is uncomfortable even visiting Washington. But Reagan does have his record as a relatively moderate two-term Governor of California to wave as proof of his ability to cope with major responsibilities. And he does wave it, pointing out that he won the governorship only by attracting Democratic support and that he managed to leave a $500 million surplus for his successor, Jerry Brown. He appears to be making some effort to reassure less conservative voters that he understands their concerns. He told a New York audience: "Increasingly employment must be a major priority for helping the cities." And in Chicago he mixed his opposition to the SALT II treaty with support for arms reduction.

There is evidence that voters other than Republican archconservatives are beginning to support Reagan. In last week's Illinois primary, according to one poll, 40% of the Republican vote was cast by Democratic and Independent crossovers, and roughly 30% of these went to Reagan. Some of the voters are those who once supported George Wallace—but not all of them. Reagan has a personal following all his own.