Nation: But Can Reagan Be Elected?

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The Republicans have been bedeviled off and on since 1964 by the bitter party split between moderates and conservatives. In 1976, Reagan's defeat at the convention led many of his supporters to offer at most lukewarm support to the Ford candidacy. This year, so far, the party has not divided sharply, at least not until John Anderson arose as a mildly successful liberal. Reagan himself has been a benign campaigner—last week he even offered to help his defeated rivals pay off their campaign debts—and the odds are that he will enjoy more party support this fall than Ford did in 1976. Says New York State National Committeeman Richard Rosenbaum, who had been a Ford admirer: "Republicans are hungry for a victory. Even those who find Reagan a little too far to the right for their tastes will back him in the general election." Pennsylvania Governor Richard Thornburgh, a former Ford backer, will support Reagan and thinks the Californian can win if he seeks support even from normally Democratic constituencies. Said he: "I would hope that no candidate would write off the support of labor unions because they have traditionally supported Democrats." Given the deeply ingrained loyalities of such groups, this will be no easy task for Reagan.

Just as the Republican Party is closer to Reagan's point of view than it was eight or even four years ago, the country as a whole has moved right. Reagan's reach for the center will be shorter now than before. Says Pollster Yankelovich: "Reagan should not assume this is a mandate to define a right-wing program for the country. Rather it is a chance to define a new policy for the center."

But to say that Reagan can be elected is by no means to say that he will be. On the contrary, he looks very much the underdog. Some party operatives are plainly unhappy with his selection. In Massachusetts, where both Bush and Anderson defeated Reagan, party leaders are not yet reconciled to the Reagan candidacy. Says one: "There's a vacuum of leadership at the national level; and what appears to be the Republican Party's response? A 69-year-old man who has done virtually nothing for years. We're at the same stage the Whigs were. There's no choice."

Carter, for all his problems, has the power of incumbency. As President, he can react to challenges by changing the direction of the whole Government, which he has done recently by attempting to balance the budget in the coming fiscal year, a course urged by all Republican candidates. Carter is an undeniably deft—and extremely lucky—politician. He also is a relatively known quantity in the White House, whereas the inexperienced Reagan would require a definite leap of faith by voters supporting him. Says Northwestern University Political Scientist Louis Masotti: "There's a variation on the old cliché: you don't change horses' asses in midstream. You've got one, and at least you know its contours."