Nation: But Can Reagan Be Elected?

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Reagan has a history of committing rhetorical blunders that drive away voters. His quest in 1976 was damaged when he suggested vaguely, without proper research and consideration, that $90 billion in federal programs should be turned back to the states. He then spent months explaining that the affected programs would not be eliminated, only transferred. As Governor, Reagan was outraged by student unrest and once proclaimed: "The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity."

Worse perhaps than the verbal gaffe is Reagan's relentlessly simple-minded discussion of complex problems. He is aware that he is charged with this failing, and in his 1967 inaugural address on becoming Governor of California, he asserted: "We have been told there are no simple answers to complex problems. Well, the truth is there are simple answers, just not easy ones."

This approach to public policy continues to characterize Reagan's 1980 campaign. One of his proposed cures for inflation is the notion that a huge tax cut will restore the productive vitality of the economy and control price rises. Most economists believe this approach is nonsense, that it would simply fuel more inflation. Reagan also asserts that "inflation comes from the Government spending more than the Government takes in. It will go away when the Government stops doing that." Economists say that a balanced federal budget would still trim less than a percentage point from the inflation rate.

Of the energy problem, Reagan says: "From the time of the horseless carriage until 1971, there was no energy shortage. What happened is that in 1971 Government got into the energy business. If Government would just get out of the energy business and leave the oil companies alone, the greatest petroleum geologists have told me we would not have to buy from OPEC." Reagan ignores the fact that before 1971, the Government was heavily involved in energy, largely by erecting tariff barriers to protect the prices of domestic oil and to limit imports. As for those future supplies that Reagan sees waiting to be drilled, the American Petroleum Institute says that if all the economically recoverable oil in the U.S. were being drilled, production would be increased by 4 million bbl. a day, only half of current import levels.

Reagan's loose statements and flabby positions will make splendid targets for Jimmy Carter. John Sears, Reagan's former campaign manager, was worried by that very problem during his year-and-a-half reign, and after Reagan fired him in late February, Sears complained publicly that Reagan does not have well-prepared policy positions. Frets Sears: "I'm not sure that he is now adequately briefed on matters on which politicians and the press and the people hold him to account."

As Reagan attempts to become the oldest President ever elected in the U.S.,* his choice for the second spot on his ticket will have to be seen as instantly capable of taking over the presidency. There has already been speculation that Senator Howard Baker of Tennessee or Rival George Bush could be possible choices.