The Robot Revolution

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to separate out the problems, not just say, 'Gee whiz, people are going to lose their jobs.' So far, in any case, we've created a hell of a lot more jobs than we've displaced." Adds Edward Fredkin, professor of computer science at M.I.T.: "We are creating what is going to be an immense new industry, perhaps as big as the auto industry."

Not everyone, of course, is so euphoric about the coming robot age. Brian Carlisle, Unimation's general manager for West Coast research, warns that "we're a long way from a robot that can assemble a carburetor." Nor are robots a panacea for all the ills that industry is heir to. The most automated factory of its time was the Lordstown plant that GM designed to produce the unsuccessful Vega, evidence that productivity is not worth much if the product is hard to sell. As the robotmakers look ahead, though, they see a promised land. It is a land in which the factory computers guide the original design of a product and then translate all instructions for the robots that provide the muscle on the automated assembly line. Furthermore, increased production should keep driving down . costs, both of the robots themselves (to an estimated $10,000 each) and of everything they produce. Says one forecast by the American Society of Manufacturing Engineers and the University of Michigan:

¶ By 1982, 5% of all assembly systems will use robotic technology.

¶ By 1985, 20% of the labor in the final assembly of autos will be replaced by automation. In the same year, "scene analysis" will provide enough feedback for robots to select parts scrambled in a bin.

¶ By 1987,15% of all assembly systems will use robot technology.

¶ By 1988, 50% of the labor in small-component assembly will be replaced by automation.

¶ By 1990, the development of sensory techniques will enable robots to approximate human capability in assembly.

While all these prospects are primarily industrial, U.S. planners are fully aware of the implications that a productivity revolution will have on a nation's global power. Says the Bureau of Standards' Albus: "Any country that develops the capacity to run its factories around the clock seven days per week with only a few human workers will have a tremendous advantage both economically and militarily. If nothing else, this capability would allow military weapons to be produced in virtually unlimited quantities at extremely low costs. But even assuming that such plants were never used for military production, the country that possessed such a large surplus of efficient production facilities could easily dominate the world economically."

Outside the factory and the lab, the work that needs to be done in this world is almost without limits, and so is the robot's potential ability to do it. In the field of farming and food processing, for example, Unimation has been asked to design a robot that can pluck chickens. Australian technicians are already testing robots to shear sheep. One machine first stuns the animal with an electric shock, then closes in with its shears. Clipping the back and sides is not too hard, but the technicians still report "significant difficulties" in finishing up the neck and head. In Japan, Mitsubishi has devised a robot that can visually distinguish different species and