Terrorism: A Murky but intriguing Trail

Accusations and denials regarding a Bulgarian connection

In Italy it is called la Pista Bulgara (the Bulgarian Trail), and at diplomatic receptions from London to Moscow the talk quickly turns to the Bulgarian Connection. Everyone in Europe, it seems, has become fascinated by an allegation that, if true, could profoundly undermine East-West relations: that a Turkish gunman's attempt to assassinate Pope John Paul II in Rome 19 months ago was masterminded by the Soviet Union, which was angered by the Pontiffs support of Poland's Solidarity Union. The trail, it is rumored, could lead as high as Soviet Leader and former KGB Chief Yuri Andropov. The reactions in West European capitals range from total disbelief to qualified credulity. Says a top British official: "I think the Russians have become too sophisticated to try this sort of thing." A French government expert, however, notes that subversion from the Communist bloc is a "permanent threat" that must be taken seriously.

While much of the evidence points intriguingly toward Bulgarian and potentially Soviet complicity, it is still mostly circumstantial. As a result, the Italian authorities are treading very carefully. "It is a matter of extremely serious facts," Interior Minister Virginio Rognoni said last week, but up to now only "evidence, not proof, has emerged."

Much of the new evidence is believed to come from a confession given to Italian authorities by Mehmet Ali Agca, 24, the Turk who is now serving a life sentence in a Rome prison for his attempt on the Pope's life. According to accounts of his confession that were leaked to Rome newspapers, Agca says that he escaped from a Turkish jail in 1979 with the aid of a Turkish terrorist who allegedly worked for the Bulgarians. Agca went to Bulgaria and then to Rome, where he met three Bulgarians, including Sergei Ivanov Antonov, the head of the local office of Bulgaria's Balkan Airlines. Later, apparently, he was offered $ 1.25 million to kill the Pope.

After wounding the Pope, Agca was caught by police before he could duck into a getaway car. His alleged Bulgarian accomplices, two of whom Agca says were with him in the square, escaped.

Italian authorities arrested Antonov earlier this month in Rome, and at Italy's request, West German police picked up another suspect in Frankfurt. The Italians also put out an arrest warrant for a former secretary to the Bulgarian military attaché and for an accountant at the Bulgarian embassy. The Bulgarian connection is further corroborated by telephone numbers that Agca gave to Italian authorities, which match those of Antonov's airline office and the Bulgarian embassy in Rome.