The Growing Gap in Retraining

Millions of jobs call for new skills, but few are acquiring them

Tucked away in the $5 billion public works job bill that President Reagan is expected to sign is a provision that could allocate as little as $75 million for worker retraining programs. That modest sum is a sign of recognition—a lamentably small sign—of one of the nation's most pressing problems.

As the U.S. economy sloughs off its declining manufacturing industries and increases its dependence on faster-growing service and technology sectors, an ever widening gap has opened between the new jobs that are being created and the skills of available workers. This skills shortage afflicts not only laid-off workers in fading industries, but also young people just entering the work force and wage earners already on the job. Each segment needs massive retraining. Says Albert Angrisani, Assistant Labor Secretary for Employment and Training: "Everybody, no matter what the occupation, has to understand that the skills they come out of high school or college with are not going to get them through a lifetime of work."

The most visible candidates for retraining are the roughly 2 million so-called displaced workers, many of whom once worked in basic industries. Most have been displaced by new technology or foreign competition, and there are few signs of a letup on either front. Experts have estimated that every year from now on at least 1 million people, and perhaps as many as 2 million, will be similarly displaced. Despite the attention and publicity given older workers laid off by declining industries, their options remain almost unrelievedly bleak.

The terrible truth, which few can face squarely, is that the skills that supported these men and women so well for so many years have lost their value in the marketplace. Management Expert Peter Drucker suggests that blue-collar manufacturing is going the way of agriculture in the postwar period: employment will decline markedly even if output rises. By the year 2005, Drucker figures, only 5% to 10% of the work force will be involved in manufacturing, compared with 20% today. That conclusion, striking as it is, is not very controversial. Last week, in a "technical memorandum" that was presented to Congress, the Office of Technology Assessment made these sobering points:

> Automotive industry sources say that 1.7 jobs are lost for every new robot.

> An internal study by General Electric shows that it is now technologically possible for the company to replace half its 37,000 assembly workers with machines, though G.E. is quick to note that it has no plans to do so.

> Of firms most likely to use automation, 40% have some form of it, but only 22% are involved in education and training for the new technology.

The new jobs being created in the U.S. hold little appeal for former assembly-line workers. According to the Government, the U.S. added 1.6 million restaurant and tavern jobs between 1973 and 1980, more than the current total in the steel (327,000) and auto (666,000) industries. During the 1980s, more new secretaries (700,000), nurse's aides and orderlies (508,000), janitors (501,000) and salesclerks (479,000) are expected to be hired than workers in any other job categories.