Time Essay: How Not to Read the Polls

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The writer is president of Yankelovich, Skelly & White Inc., the New York-based public opinion research firm that since 1972 has conducted polls on various subjects for this magazine.

In the 1976 presidential election, the catch phrase was "voter apathy." Journalists and politicians cited the public opinion polls to "prove" a mass defection from the electoral process. But while millions of voters stayed away from the voting booths, apathy was not the phenomenon at all. Voters were angry, frustrated and irritated at what they felt was the futility of their participation in elections. Something was in the air, but it was not voter indifference.

This year the catch phrase is "volatile." First the public favors an unannounced Kennedy candidacy 2 to 1 over President Carter's; months later that has changed to Carter 2 to 1 over Kennedy. Then, in New York and Connecticut, Kennedy beats Carter. The President's management of the American hostage situation in Iran was at first a major plus in his approval ratings; then it became a minus. Once again the public opinion polls are cited, and "volatility" is said to be the explanation. But once again the catch phrase is misleading.

Certainly there have been wide swings in public opinion in this 1980 presidential campaign. And just as certainly there will be more swings. But volatile, according to the dictionary, describes one who is "lighthearted," "fickle" or "capricious" and whose views are "transitory or fleeting." Applied to the current mood of the American public, these terms are laughably inaccurate. One can describe the American electorate in 1980 as troubled or conflict-ridden or agitated about what many regard as the unsatisfactory choices that confront them. But this is hardly a fickle or transitory state of mind. And it certainly is not lighthearted.

In 1944 Sociologist Paul Lazarsfeld demonstrated in his studies of voting behavior that conflict breeds delay in a voter's making up his or her mind. What we are witnessing now in the ups and downs of public opinion poll data is irresolution bred by strong conflict. Its presence means that many voters are going to wait until the last minute to decide. Every electoral race in this campaign, from the primaries to the main bout, is likely to be a cliffhanger, with the opinion polls unable to predict the outcome much in advance of the event.

Ordinarily the public is neither as conflict-ridden nor as relentlessly bombarded with daily polls as we are now. Though the contemporary scene makes for confusion and instability, there is one consolation. The confusion presents a unique opportunity to gain an insight indispensable to all who rely upon poll data. It highlights a missing element in the relationship of opinion polls to the public whose views they register.