Nation: Nein on Nine?

California's tax revolt ebbs

Voters in California led the national revolt against high taxes two years ago by overwhelmingly passing Proposition 13, which slashed property levies in the state by an average of 57%. The vote made something of a folk hero out of Proposition 13's coauthor, salty septuagenarian Howard Jarvis. Now Jarvis has written Proposition 9, which would cut state income-tax rates in half, and succeeded in placing it on California ballots for a vote next Tuesday. But this time he seems likely to demonstrate only that anti-tax sentiment has its limits, even in the Golden State. A leading California poll showed last week that voters oppose Proposition 9 by 57% to 31%.

One reason is that voters now seem to be heeding warnings by public officials that another deep reduction in taxes would endanger vital government services, such as education and police and fire protection. Similar gloomy prophecies proved spectacularly wrong after Proposition 13 passed in 1978. But the state had a $5 billion surplus then, most of which it made available to the city and county governments dependent on property taxes to soften the impact of Proposition 13. Now the state's surplus is down to about $2.6 billion. Opponents of Proposition 9 argue that by slashing income tax revenues $4.9 billion next fiscal year, the measure would wipe out the surplus altogether and leave the state unable to continue bailing out local governments.

Jarvis' foes also maintain that cutting income taxes in half would benefit the rich far more than middle-and lowin come people. Says Roland Vincent, a Los Angeles investment counselor and a leading opponent of Proposition 9: "About $3 billion in tax relief would go to about 10% of the wealthiest taxpayers in the state." His opinion seems widespread: a Los Angeles Times poll indicates that 37% of the voters who approved Proposition 13 will vote against Proposition 9.

In addition, Jarvis has undermined his own cause with wild outbursts of name-calling. He has accused his opponents of "monumental lies" and called the county of San Luis Obispo, where there is strong opposition to the initiative, "the dumbest, crookedest bunch." On one occasion he shouted at a woman heckler:

"You should go to Nevada to one of the houses they have there," meaning Nevada's legal brothels. Such extravagant abuse apparently has caused many voters, who admired Jarvis as engagingly feisty two years ago, to write him off now as a vulgar demagogue. ∎