Battling Down the Stretch

Debates in Tehran and Cleveland bring the campaign to a climax

Seldom has an American election headed into such a wildly unpredictable windup.

Suddenly, the years of campaign planning, the months of oratory, the endless procession of TV spots, handshaking tours, charge and countercharge seemed little more than an arduous overture to the possibility that Iran would decide to release the 52 American hostages, and to the reality of the face-to-face TV confrontation this week between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. How the debates in Tehran and Cleveland are decided could fulfill the dreams of one candidate while shattering those of the other—or, possibly, result in inconclusive dithering.

Neither event has any solid precedent.

To be sure, world events, real or promised, such as the Suez war and Hungarian revolt in 1956, and Henry Kissinger's "Peace is at hand" statement in 1972, have influenced voters on the eves of past elections. But neither of those was a close race, and never before has the decision on so emotional an issue as the hostages been so totally under the control of a foreign government.

The Kennedy-Nixon and Carter-Ford debates in 1960 and 1976 are equally irrelevant to this week's face-off. Those earlier debates occurred in series of four and three beginning early in September, giving the candidates ample time to polish their arguments between rounds and pound them home in later campaign appearances. This time Carter and Reagan have taken flie gamble of facing each other just once, in full knowledge that any mistakes they make cannot be repaired or retouched in the week remaining before the vote.

That the choice of who will govern the nation for four years may well depend on the acts of a hostile, often irrational Iranian government and the impression two carefully rehearsed politicians make in a fleeting 90 minutes of TV time is deeply disquieting. But in a sense the election has been building toward that kind of bizarre climax. For more than a year, two flawed candidates have been floundering toward the final showdown, each unable to give any but his most unquestioning supporters much reason to vote for him except dislike of his opponent. Carter has been dogged by inflation and unemployment at home and turmoil overseas during his years in office, Reagan by a reputation for right-wing extremism and simplistic thinking. Each at some point held a lead in the polls: Carter early in the year, Reagan immediately after the Republican Convention. Each was unable to hold his advantage.

The release of the hostages, both candidates' camps agree, would give the President's campaign a powerful boost. The Republicans would have to join in the national rejoicing. Says one Reagan adviser: "We would grit our teeth and say how delighted we are."