The Future Begins on Nov. 4

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The potential risk of a Reagan foreign policy probably is not so much outright belligerence as his tendency to divide the world into good guys and bad guys. He seems to underestimate the complexity of Third World countries, where not all revolutionary movements are necessarily pro-Soviet or permanently anti-American. Evenhandedness in delicate trouble spots—of the sort that enabled Carter to bring about the Camp David accords—does not seem much in Reagan's character. His one-sided defense of the Israeli position, to the extent that it is more than campaign rhetoric, leaves him little credibility in the Arab world.

Voters weighing the risks to peace in a Reagan presidency will need to consider two related questions. Will a candidate who has sounded so belligerent actually act that way when he faces the real, rather than the hypothetical powers of the presidency? There is no way to be sure. Lyndon Johnson campaigned as a relative dove—and wound up vastly escalating U.S. involvement in Viet Nam. On the other hand, Dwight Eisenhower, a war leader, was extremely cautious as President about the use of military power and even warned about the insidious influence of a "militaryindustrial complex," which Reagan now considers no danger at all. But Reagan's own policies as Governor of California certainly turned out to be far more moderate than his campaign for the office had suggested.

Second, would Reagan as President surround himself with a range of advisers who would temper his hawkish tendencies? The evidence is otherwise. His task forces drawing up foreign policy options include such hawkish advisers as William Van Cleave, a defense expert from the University of Southern California; Edward Luttwak, a leading theoretician of the right; and Richard Pipes, a Harvard history professor who is strongly anti-Soviet. Of late, he has been advised by more experienced and moderate voices as well, Henry Kissinger being a noteworthy example. But there is little doubt that Reagan would use U.S. military power abroad more aggressively than Carter. On balance, Reagan's greatest appeal in the foreign policy field lies in the fact that, despite the risks represented by inexperience and simplicity of approach, he would bring a fresh start after Carter's failures and confusions.

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