Nation: Another Contrary Congress

Most incumbents will return, but more contentious than ever

The current Congress has been one of the most quarrelsome and rebellious ever faced by a President. The Congress that will emerge from next week's elections will probably not be much different. Once again, Democrats are almost certain to retain control of both chambers, as they have for all but four years since Franklin Roosevelt was elected in 1932. Leaders of both parties predict that the Republicans will score a net gain of twelve to 20 seats in the House and two or three in the Senate. But once again, whoever wins the White House will most likely find Congress in the same contrary and independent mood that has confronted Jimmy Carter for almost four years.

For one thing, the presidential nominees are expected to have very short coattails, nearly all House and Senate members will have to win on their own. Indeed, some popular candidates may even help Carter or Ronald Reagan take closely contested states. Thus few members of the 97th Congress will have any electoral debts to pay to the occupant of the Oval Office. Moreover, most Representatives and Senators still regard Carter, even near the end of his first term, as an outsider; Reagan would initially not be treated much differently.

Still, the next Congress will not be a carbon copy of its predecessor. Even if the Democrat vs. Republican lineup does not change much, congressional observers expect the outlook of both chambers to shift considerably to the right. Many Democrats, including liberals, have tried to keep pace with the conservative tide in the electorate. In addition, some prominent liberals may be defeated. Thus the next Congress may resist new spending programs, except on defense, and be more willing to strengthen agencies like the CIA.

The Democrats' nimble-footed move to the right is particularly galling for Republicans, who expected to benefit from the country's deepening conservative mood. A few months ago, G.O.P. leaders spoke euphorically of winning control of the Senate and perhaps even the House. Now they talk more soberly of winning control of the Senate in 1984 and the House at some time in the distant future.

The congressional elections are once again demonstrating the power of incumbency, which mostly helps the Democrats because they outnumber Republicans 59 to 41 in the Senate and 216 to 159 in the House. Members are boasting openly about funneling federal funds into their districts, while assuring voters that they are eliminating waste in other areas of the budget. Incumbents also benefit from a paradox: while voters consistently seem to distrust Congress as a whole, they usually admire their own legislators. Thus North Dakota's veteran G.O.P. Congressman Mark Andrews is considered a shoo-in for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Milton Young. Says a disgruntled Democrat: "Andrews and God occupy the same niche here." Of the House incumbents, 51 have no opponent, scores face only token opposition, and 95% are expected to be reelected.