PERSIAN GULF: The Hostage Drama

Rumors of a deal feed hopes of freedom for Tehran's American captives

For nearly a year the 52 American hostages in Iran have been the world's most conspicuous captives.

Hopes for their release have been periodically raised, and then abruptly shattered. Once again last week there was a dizzying flurry of rumors that the prisoners of the Islamic militants might soon get their freedom—perhaps in a deal involving the shipment of U.S. military supplies to embattled Iran. And once again, the final decision over their fate depended on the unpredictable judgment of Tehran's parliament, the 228-member Majlis, a body dominated by the most fanatical followers of the Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini.

On Sunday the Majlis met to discuss the fate of the hostages. After a stormy public debate, the members went into secret session, which ended without a resolution of the issue; another secret session was scheduled for Monday. Moderate forces in the Majlis defeated a motion to suspend debate until after the U.S. elections. But anti-American zealots were carrying out a filibuster, designed to prevent an early vote on proposed conditions for the hostages' release that were believed to be acceptable to the U.S.

A hostage homecoming, if it came on the eve of a closely fought presidential election, might put Carter in the White House for another four years. The prospect of a hostage deal, however, confronted his Administration with an acute foreign-policy dilemma. Because of obvious political as well as humanitarian considerations, the President could hardly reject any reasonable terms for the freedom of the captives. Yet any U.S. concessions, particularly on the shipment of military spare parts, might compromise Washington's neutral stance on the Persian Gulf war, thereby enraging Iraq and dismaying its pro-American supporters in the war with Iran —Saudi Arabia and Jordan. At worst, such a quid pro quo might be construed by Moscow as direct U.S. interference and thus provide an alibi for an expanded Soviet role in the conflict.

At week's end Administration officials reported that Iran was considering an initial release of up to 40 hostages, with the others to be held pending a final settlement of the U.S.-Iran dispute. But such a partial liberation would put Carter in a political bind at home—especially if the remaining hostages were subjected to trials. Washington thus sent word to Tehran insisting on the release of all the Americans at the same time.