POLAND: Poised for a Showdown

• Share

With Soviet troops near by, the unions walk the tightrope

The choices were more sharply drawn than ever. Poland last week stood poised between what Warsaw Journalist Stefan Bratkowski called "a revolution of good sense," and a perilous showdown with its Soviet master. Everyone in Poland, after months of denying the obvious, finally acknowledged that Soviet intervention was a real possibility. Indeed, both the government and Solidarity, the federation of Poland's new independent unions, issued calls for moderation. But at the same time, the workers continued to test Moscow's patience with provocative moves. Solidarity brazenly announced the establishment of a special commission to defend jailed dissidents—just the sort of political gesture that the Kremlin has warned against. Meanwhile, farmers clamored for a union of their own. A huge ceremony marking the tenth anniversary of the bloody 1970 riots on the Baltic coast was planned for this week, and officials worried lest it get out of hand. If it did, Soviet troops stood on alert at Poland's borders. "The Poles," said a concerned analyst in Bonn, "seem to have a particular talent for courting national suicide." But the workers were not contemplating retreat. Said Union Leader Lech Walesa: "We are not cowards. We are not going back, ever."

U.S. intelligence experts in Washington believe that the Kremlin will sooner or later have to use force in Poland. The likelihood of intervention will remain high, they say, even if the recent Soviet military buildup turns out to be a bluff. With no sign of easing tensions, Western analysts revised their initially optimistic estimates of an earlier East bloc summit in Moscow. At that meeting Party Boss Stanislaw Kania may not have got a reprieve, as first thought. Instead, he was apparently read the riot act: either revive the party and get the country moving again—or else. "These talks were very difficult," a well-informed Polish journalist told TIME last week. "From our side there were no guarantees, and from our partners there was a notable lack of confidence."

Perhaps to soothe Moscow, Polish newspapers blamed the crisis atmosphere on the Western press. Reported Zycie Warszawy: "All the drama is to be found in news wires, newspaper columns, television and radio. None of it is in our country." Nevertheless, there was a sense that one misstep could bring tragedy. Poland's Roman Catholic bishops released a pastoral letter calling for calm and cooperation. It ended with a prayer: "Give us the spirit of peace and responsibility that there be no bloodshed or war. Defend us so that we may not lose the freedom won by our fathers at so large a cost."

The Western view that Soviet intervention is inevitable was rooted in a cold-blooded diagnosis of the Polish disease. Not only is it critical, it is chronic, degenerative and infectious. With nasty irony, Poland is proving that Marx was right: political crisis does sprout from economic difficulty. And in Poland's case, the economy is on the brink of collapse.