Middle East: The Attack That Almost Was

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Israel comes close to launching an assault on southern Lebanon

For months diplomats and military experts around the world have been expecting land and air strikes by Israeli forces against Palestine Liberation Organization strongholds in southern Lebanon. That assault was narrowly averted last week, though perhaps not for long. TIME has learned that Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, in a last-minute decision, rejected a plan by Defense Minister Ariel Sharon and Chief of Staff Lieut. General Rafael Eitan that could have led to war in Lebanon.

Sharon and Eitan had recommended a modest attack on Palestinian strongholds in retaliation for the entry into the occupied West Bank a few days earlier of a six-man P.L.O. squad from Jordan. The problem, Begin concluded, was that given the state of tension, a small-scale Israeli action would lead to a sharp counterthrust by the P.L.O. and then to a full-scale assault on Lebanon by Israeli forces. For that reason, Begin decided to set aside the proposal — at least for now.

Sharon has been pressing for just such an attack for several weeks. In mid-January, he met with Bashir Gemayel, commander of Christian Phalange forces in Lebanon, aboard an Israeli gunboat off Jounieh, a port city north of Beirut. The main subject: coordination of efforts between Israelis and Phalangists, in the event of an invasion that would bring Israeli forces as far north as the edge of Beirut International Airport. Such a penetration could also bring the Israelis into direct contact with the forces of Syria, whom many Israelis regard as the ultimate enemy of the Jewish state. What the two men decided at this meeting is not known.

Next, Sharon flew to Egypt to confer with President Hosni Mubarak. The two discussed details of Israel's withdrawal from the last third of the occupied Sinai by April 25. More important, Sharon felt he secured from Mubarak an understanding that, in the event of Israeli action in Lebanon, Egypt would remain on the sidelines. Mubarak had said previously that in case of war, Egypt would not rush to the aid of Syria.

Then, when Sharon learned a week ago of the six-man P.L.O. infiltration of the West Bank, he swung into action. At a press conference that the daily Ha'aretz described as "overdramatized," defense ministry officials declared since participants in the raid had been trained in Lebanon, the P.L.O. in effect had violated the July 1981 truce in southern Lebanon. As government radio and television commentators cried out Sharon against the summoned P.L.O. "provocation," Sharon summoned Eitan and a small group of generals and intelligence officers. Israeli tanks and troops were al ready moving north. Sharon decided that he and Eitan should take their plan for a limited attack on P.L.O. positions in southern Lebanon to the Cabinet committee responsible for defense and foreign affairs. Begin, in the meantime, was studying the military situation and the foreign-policy consequences of an Israeli strike.

Throughout most of the meeting, which was held at the Prime Minister's residence last Monday night, Begin sat in silence. He listened as Sharon recommended action, and other ministers questioned about the costs to Israel of an expanded operation. At one point, Begin excused himself for 15 minutes.