Reagan Says All Aboard

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The President's sales tactics were sorely tested as he tried to lure other Republican conservative Congressmen back into the fold. When eight of them were invited to the White House, Reagan was solemn. He passed up his usual jokes and stories but employed what one participant called "a lot of eye contact." Reagan claimed that he had no qualms about the bill and had not been talked into supporting it by aides. He insisted that only about 17% of the revenue in the package would come from tax increases (chiefly on cigarettes, telephone bills and airline tickets). The rest would come from closing tax loopholes and getting payment from tax evaders, mainly by withholding taxes on their interest and stock dividends. It was true, as he said in Montana, that "the tax bill . . . will not raise income taxes on the average American." If the bill does not pass, Reagan warned the balky Congressmen, the deficit would soar, and interest rates might reach "16% in November"—when all House members face reelection. That might be rough for them, but it would be "disastrous" for the economy, Reagan said. "He's a very persuasive man," observed Delaware Republican Thomas Evans after the meeting. "I could see some of us coming back on."

It appeared that Reagan had succeeded in keeping the conservative rebellion from spreading and had begun to turn the tide of opposition. His all-out fight had "slowed the erosion" of support for the bill, New York Republican Congressman Barber Conable told TIME Correspondent Neil MacNeill. "The rebellion isn't feeding on itself now. His strong intrusion has made people cautious."

The critical test would come in the House, where many Republicans were outraged at a Democratic tactic that the President had nothing to do with. After the Senate on July 23 had passed the tax bill without a single Democratic vote, House Democratic leaders refused to take the bill to the House floor. Instead, they went directly into a Senate-House conference committee, where the package was being prepared for probable consideration in both chambers this week. Most House Republicans refused to commit themselves to support a bill that they had not been allowed to shape.

The President's problem was compounded by the probability that House Democrats would not provide the votes for passage of the tax bill unless a majority of Republicans also bit the political bullet. The Democrats, in other words, were willing to push the bill over the top as long as the Republicans got the blame. That meant that Reagan needed support from about 100 of the 192 House Republicans. At week's end White House aides could count only 43 firmly committed and another 20 who seemed likely to join him. While the bill seemed safe in the Republican-controlled Senate, Reagan's friend, Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt, observed, "This is the most difficult legislative challenge this President has had to face. It's tight as hell." Still, Reagan's clout and the obvious need for new federal revenue may prove decisive. Reagan had one advantage in the struggle: many of the dissidents in his party came from the South and West, where he remains extremely popular with voters. With Reagan's prestige on the line, Representatives from those areas might hesitate to vote against him.