Seeking Votes and Clout

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vote. When you run, you put your program on the front burner. If you run, you might lose. If you don't run, you're guaranteed to lose." And the chant for him to run sounds again. In creating such fervor, raising such grass-roots expectations, he leaves himself little choice but to take their advice. But perhaps more important, they are taking his. Blacks are registering to vote and running for office in a groundswell of activism that promises to alter permanently the political balance on local, state and national levels.

Indeed, the significance of a potential Jackson candidacy comes not from whatever chance he would have of being a broker at a deadlocked convention (probably very little) or the possibility that he might actually win (virtually none at all). On the contrary, he could even injure the black cause, as many leaders have been quick to point out, by drawing support away from liberal candidates like Walter Mondale. His crusade also threatens to cause deep divisions within the ranks of black leadership, and it could strain the relationship between blacks and the Democratic Party.

But in the view of Jackson's supporters, a candidacy could significantly reshape the 1984 political landscape for the better and help the Democratic Party oust Ronald Reagan. If black voter participation increases 25% by the time of the general election, Reagan could lose eight states that he won in 1980—Alabama, Arkansas, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee—even if he should get the same percentage of white votes he did then. In Alabama, for example, where Reagan won by 17,462 votes, there were 272,390 unregistered blacks. Even in New York there are 900,000 unregistered blacks (55% of those eligible), more than five times as many as Reagan's 1980 margin of victory there.

The excitement generated by Jackson's potential campaign reflects, and contributes to, a resurgence of black political activism not seen since the 1960s. "We've spent at least ten years being mostly dormant," says Robert Starks, a professor of inner-city studies at Northeastern Illinois University. "The only people that were busy were the Jesse Helms types. Now we're going to do them one better."

This political reawakening was spurred in part by Reagan's domestic budget cuts and perceived insensitivity to civil rights. "Reagan has been a stimulant, no question about it," says Joseph Lowery, president of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference (S.C.L.C.). The surprise victory of Harold Washington in the Chicago mayoral race last April showed blacks anew that the voting booth could be a path to power. So did W. Wilson Goode's triumph in the Democratic primary race for mayor of Philadelphia. Jackson has been one of many leaders who have helped channel this renewed political interest into increased voter registration. "Jesse Jackson's idea and Ronald Reagan's reality have committed black people to the political process like we have never been committed before," says Michael Lomax, chairman of the board of commissioners in Fulton County, Ga.

There were already strong signs in 1982 of growing political involvement. Black turnout went from 37% in the off-year elections of 1978 to 43% last year, twice the percentage increase of white voters. The gap between