The Magic and the Message

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Why have Americans seemed so generous toward Reagan? Pundits resort to a kind of mystical non-analysis: some unprecedented "Teflon factor," they say, has permitted him to escape public blame; no failure sticks. Walter Mondale's hope is that before Americans step into the polling booths, they will come to see that the Teflon is just a thin coating, that the President beneath is oblivious and misguided. "Mondale and Ferraro are putting up warning signs," notes a White House strategist. "They are saying the next four years will be dangerous if Reagan is reelected. We will have to respond to that." The wishful Democratic scenario has the electorate looking toward a problematic future and deciding that one term of the Reagan regimen has been O.K., but that one term was enough.

Indeed, zigzags in support for Reagan indicate that voters are ambivalent, fond of him personally but uneasy about many of his policies. In a recent Harris poll, for instance, he gets an overall positive rating of 55%, while 63% disapprove of his Central American and arms-control policies. Generally, however, the numbers are discouraging to Democrats. In a new Yankelovich, Skelly & White survey conducted for TIME, 45% of respondents say they would vote for Reagan, 31% for Mondale (see following story). Interestingly, all the national polls found Mondale's postnomination surge to be short-lived. Pollster Lou Harris believes that the hoopla surrounding the Olympics "totally wiped the memory of the Democratic Convention away." Political professionals regard summer surveys as rough sketches of attitudes, however, believing that voters do not focus on the campaign until after Labor Day. Reagan's analysts say they expect the President's lead to shrink, but even the rare White House pessimists count on staying ahead by at least four points.

The Reaganites do not seriously consider the possibility of losing. Although the campaign's success will hinge to an unusual degree on the candidate's personal magic, he is more than just a jolly master of ceremonies: Reagan goes to the voters with a message and a record in office. "I see him running on the same broad principles he ran on in 1980," says James Baker, his chief of staff. Reagan remains devoted to cutting back social programs (although he declines to be specific), to increasing the Pentagon budget further, to hanging tough with the Soviet Union and to preaching the New Right line on social issues. Moreover, the President is still trying to pitch himself as a crusading outsider, even after a term in the White House. "He thinks Congress and the bureaucracy are the Government," explains an aide.