The Magic and the Message

(4 of 8)

The Republican political machine looks powerful, its nuts and bolts in place. The mistrust between moderates and conservatives continues, but in most states the re-election campaigns seem not to be suffering much from the rift. The G.O.P. is exceptionally well funded. During January, February and March, the National Committee and its two congressional adjuncts raised $42 million; the Democrat counterparts could collect just $7.3 million. The Republicans will spend $10 million trying to register 2 million new voters, and as much as $15 million more to mobilize Reagan supporters on Nov. 6. The net is rather finely woven to let in only conservatives: the vestibules of many fundamentalist churches have stacks of registration forms, and high-income suburban zip codes are targeted for canvassing.

On Election Day the selective G.O.P. registration drives look to get a lot of bang for the buck. The higher a citizen's income, the more likely he is to vote, and Reagan's greatest support is among high-income people. But just the rich, or even just Republicans, cannot carry the election for Reagan. To do well, he must rack up more decisive victories in the South than he did in 1980 and pull nearly half the votes of manual workers. Says a Reagan aide: "We need to get a coalition of rednecks, white collars and blue collars."

Geraldine Ferraro is a new variable in this political calculus. While it is unlikely that she will provide the Democrats with millions of converts, she may help limit Reagan's inroads into traditionally Democratic voters who share her background—blue-collar Roman Catholics generally, Italian Americans in particular. She also seems certain to consolidate the Democratic ticket's support among women, especially younger women.

Voters constitute ethnic, class and cultural constituencies, but they live in states: victory comes from winning individual states and thus a majority of U.S. electoral votes, at least 270 of 538. The Democrats, for starters, concede about 20 states and at least 120 electoral votes to Reagan. They claim an edge in nine states (and Washington, D.C.), with 90 electoral votes. By the Democrats' optimistic reckoning, that leaves 20 states up for grabs.

The outlook in each region: The West. This vast territory has been a breeze for G.O.P. presidential candidates since 1948, and Reagan-style Republicanism—sinewy self-reliance, plain and simple—is a Western strain. The Republicans will probably lose Hawaii, as in 1980, but intend to win all twelve remaining states. California, with 47 electoral votes, is the mother lode. In a state that prizes novelty and pizazz, Ferraro could conceivably spur a Democratic upset. But probably not. "Maybe Mrs. Ferraro will make it possible for Walter Mondale to have a respectable loss," gibes Ted Hicks, the Los Angeles County G.O.P. chairman. Ronald Reagan has won California every time out (twice for Governor, four G.O.P. presidential primaries, the 1980 election); Walter Mondale lost big in last June's Democratic primary. Says Mickey Kantor, Mondale's California campaign manager: "There is always a first time."