The Magic and the Message

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His handlers will try to keep Reagan away from journalistic free-fire zones during the campaign, but he will inevitably have more impromptu encounters with the press—and thus more chances for signals to get crossed, to goof up. The staff is worried that the public will see Reagan as disengaged, unknowing, even a bit dotty. When he was asked a touchy question last month as he posed for pictures by a wildlife refuge, White House Spokesman Larry Speakes stepped in front of the President to prevent him from answering, and Speakes' underlings pulled the plugs on TV lights. Earlier this month, when the President seemed stumped by an arms control question, Nancy Reagan fed him an all-purpose answer. Says a top aide: "Larry won't be doing that again. Mrs. Reagan won't do that again. It makes people think the old fellow ain't up to it."

Reagan will surely debate Mondale at least once (the Democrat has requested six encounters), and the elderly President cannot afford to seem out to lunch. His advisers are confident he will perform well, that his command of the issues is greater than it was when he outshone Carter in 1980. But Mondale's thrust and parry have been sharpened by a long primary campaign. Bush will probably be drawn into a debate too. If he declines, he looks silly and defensive; yet if he accepts, he stands a good chance of losing, since Ferraro, the underdog, merely has to hold her own to win.

Reagan is the oldest President ever, and his age, 73, may finally prove the greatest threat to his reelection. "I do think his hearing has gotten worse,"says an adviser. Reagan occasionally nods off during Cabinet meetings, and his press conference hesitations seem longer. In public he usually appears ruddy and chipper enough. But one serious health scare could make the electorate radically reconsider Reagan's fitness to be President.

For now, however, the path to a second term looks well marked and clear.

The candidate strides along, jaunty as ever. "We can bumble all day and all night on the tax and deficit issue and still come out all right," says one cocky adviser. "Why? Because the economy is strong, and right now our vulnerability on foreign affairs isn't obvious. The world looks pretty calm." Among the aides, election bets concern only the size of the victory margin. "A landslide," says Richard Wirthlin, the President's pollster, is not a high-probability event." At the White House these days, that is about as cautious as they get. —By Kurt Andersen. Reported by Laurence L. Barrett, with Reagan, and Joseph N. Boyce/Atlanta