POLITICS: An Unclear Gauge

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The first congressional race of this mid-term election year, last week's special vote to fill a House vacancy in Pennsylvania's Twelfth District, was widely viewed as an early gauge of Watergate's wallop at the polls. The results turned out to be almost as muddy as the Conemaugh River waters that submerged Johnstown, the district's largest city, in the historic flood of 1889. Barring a reversal in a vote review, the Democrats captured a seat that had been held by the late John P. Saylor, a Republican, for 24 years-hardly an encouraging sign to jittery G.O.P. vote seekers. Yet the margin of victory was so razor-thin-230 votes in a turnout of more than 121,000-that it offered little comfort to Democrats hoping that massive revulsion against Watergate will turn November's House and Senate races into a landslide victory for their party.

The race matched Harry M. Fox, 49, Saylor's loyal administrative assistant for all 13 of his terms, against Democrat John P. Murtha Jr., 41, a boyish-looking car-wash operator in Johnstown, three-term representative in the Pennsylvania house and lieutenant colonel in the Marine reserve. The holder of two Purple Hearts awarded during volunteer service in Viet Nam in 1966-67, Murtha becomes the first Indochina veteran to win election to Congress.

During two grueling months of campaigning at factory gates and mine portals, the candidates concentrated on local issues like jobs and fuel shortages. These problems were clearly uppermost in the minds of voters in the gritty, economically troubled district, which in recent years has lost population. Yet Watergate was never far from the surface. Murtha spoke of the Administration's "crisis of credibility" and adopted as his slogan, "One honest man can make a difference." Sensing that Watergate might tip the balance against his "promotion," Fox attacked the non-local press. "The national news media brought Watergate into this campaign," he complained. "They are creating a mountain out of a molehill."

Aware that the race might be seen as a bellwether for November's balloting, both parties trotted out some of their big names to join the campaign-Vice President Gerald Ford for Fox, Senators Henry Jackson, Walter Mondale, Edmund Muskie and Joseph Biden for Murtha. In addition, Murtha was heavily supported by various AFL-CIO political organizations whose leaders were hoping to post a first score in George Meany's four-month-old campaign to make life increasingly more difficult for President Nixon.

Local Impact. The Democrats held a slight edge in voter registration (111,000 to 103,000). But Saylor carried the district with 68% of the vote in 1972, and Fox's long association with the popular Congressman should have canceled out that advantage. In any case, voters obviously delivered no ringing mandate. Whether Watergate has significant impact at the local level may become clearer by April, when four more special elections will have been held to fill House vacancies.*