REPUBLICANS: Now the Republican Rumble

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Most distressed by the Ford-Reagan standoff on the right side of the G.O.P. are the party's moderates and liberals. To launch a third rival candidacy, or .even a third-party campaign, would only ensure a Democratic victory. Maryland Senator Charles ("Mac") Mathias Jr., who once considered such a movement, has no yen for it now. Yet he is critical of Ford for trying to appease the Reaganites. "By trying to feed the alligators," Mathias complains, "the President has in fact helped them grow bigger. He has enhanced their importance. You can't appease the alligators—their appetite is insatiable."

Reagan's successes could turn out to be only a brief stretch of glory. In a national survey for TIME of 1,011 registered voters, taken just before the Texas primary, Opinion Analyst Daniel Yankelovich found that Republicans and independents combined favor Ford by a huge margin:

Ford 62%, Reagan 25%.

Reagan supporters are about equally divided between conservative Republicans and those independents and Democrats who share Wallace's expressed concerns. Adds Yankelovich: "Reagan's victories in the South and Indiana are therefore deceptive. In these conservative states, there are more of the kind of people to whom he appeals than in the country as a whole, and they vote in primaries, especially when cross-over is permitted. As of the moment, Reagan's base is about as narrow as Goldwater's was in 1964."

The nationwide preference for Ford seems to belie any claim that Reagan would be the stronger candidate in November. A Harris survey taken last month shows that Ford would run much better than Reagan against Carter, though either Republican would lose to him. In that survey, Carter was ahead of Ford, 47% to 43%, and in front of Reagan, 53% to 34%.

Despite the feeling among Republican and Democratic leaders that Ford will survive the challenge in Kansas City, there remains considerable doubt. TIME last week asked its correspondents to estimate the number of delegates that Ford and Reagan are likely to win in the state elections ahead. Momentum and other imponderables could easily change the figures, but the correspondents produced an unexpected conclusion. At the moment, Reagan would go to Kansas City with about 150 more wholly committed delegates than Ford. But when Ford picks up the uncommitted delegates who are thought to lean to him, he gains a roughly 75-vote edge—hardly a decisive difference. In addition, there are about 120 delegate races that are now impossible to call. These may well be most important because, by TIME'S latest projections, both men would be a shade short of the 1,130 needed to pin down the nomination.

That presages the decisive struggle ahead in the G.O.P., notably in the home states of the two contenders. Ford is currently conceded to be leading in Michigan by a precarious margin, and Reagan is thought to be ahead by a thread in California. Both sides agree that if either Ford or Reagan loses his home state, it would be a devastating blow. The irony would be if each were to win on the other's home ground —not an impossibility in this intriguing year.