REPUBLICANS: Now the Republican Rumble

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In the shaken White House, however, the old talk of a first-ballot nomination was replaced by cold fear that the nomination might be lost. By contrast, Reagan, who had seemed almost embarrassed in victory and downplayed his successes at first, switched tactics. A day after his triple wins, he held a post-midnight meeting with his campaign advisers in a hotel room at Shreveport, La. Explained one of the group: "Reagan decided it was time to start sounding like a winner. We don't want our modest public expectations to get in the way of what's happening." At planeside in Shreveport the next morning, Reagan for the first time predicted that he may well have "enough delegates to win on the first ballot."

That is a long way from happening.

But if it did, Ford would suffer the ignominy of becoming the first President since Republican Chester Alan Arthur in 1884 to seek his party's nomination for a new term and fail to get it. Already he has become the first President to lose multiple primary elections since Republican William Howard Taft lost twelve such contests, nine of them to Theodore Roosevelt, in 1912—yet Taft fought on to win the nomination.

Open, decent and in some ways politically courageous, Ford does not seem to deserve such treatment. He has pursued detente, an agreement on strategic nuclear weapons and the Panama Canal negotiations—all basically sound positions—in the face of Reagan's harsh attacks. Last month Ford, an advocate of free trade, refused to give special protection to the domestic shoe industry against foreign competition, despite heavy pressure from the industry's political friends on Capitol Hill.

The rise of Reagan, the spectacular triumph of Carter and the unpredictability of so many of the primaries have undermined the confidence of the political professionals in detecting just what is happening in this volatile election year. Clearly, the voters are in an independent, anti-Washington mood, and they are voting for "outsiders" who are not tainted by "politics as usual." Endorsements by top political leaders have meant little. Labor leaders have failed to deliver their rank-and-file votes. The winning candidates are sweeping across voting blocs whether by age, income or ethnic background. Voters, it seems, are rebelling against something.

Carter in a big way and Reagan with increasing skill seem to have found a means to ride the currents running in the land. To be sure, the Reagan surge has largely taken place on congenial, conservative territory. Yet in the May 1 Texas primary, his smashing shutout of Ford (96 delegates to 0) defied any simple ideological analysis. Normally, Ford should have been able to win at least some of the state's more liberal districts in Dallas and Austin. Reagan's three victories last week were also impressive. Summaries: