REPUBLICANS: Now the Republican Rumble

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As the fratricide continues, fear is mounting among many Republicans that the nomination may mean nothing, no matter who wins it. "This is a pitiful little party at best," says one prominent California Republican. "The fight is precluding us from any chance to win in November."

Various Yankelovich, Harris, Gallup and University of Michigan surveys place the percentage of voters who consider themselves Republican at between 18% and 25%, v. between 42% and 50% who consider themselves Democrats (the rest are self-styled independents). While Reagan backers insist that their man is now showing he can attract independents and Democrats, his following so far seems to be a narrowly based conservative bloc. "If Reagan succeeds in putting this coalition together," observes Marquette University Sociologist Wayne Youngquist, "it's not going to be a new majority, it's going to be a new minority."

Worry is growing that the party is headed for another Goldwater-like 1964 disaster, and Barry Goldwater shares that view. To the dismay of his far-right fans, he has been assailing Reagan for not being "honest" on the Panama Canal issue. Thunders Goldwater: "He's saying Ford is giving Panama away. Ford can't give anything away. It has to be the Senate and the House of Representatives." If Reagan "comes out for war" over the canal, Goldwater predicts, "he's going to defeat himself."

Moreover, Goldwater claims J unkindly that "a lot of the same people who were backing me are just as viciously and strongly backing Reagan." In Arizona, Goldwater charges, some Reagan people threatened to defeat him if he ran for delegate to the National Convention. "I've never been a delegate, so it didn't matter a damn to me." He will be a speaker in Kansas City.

If either a convention deadlock or the fear of defeat in November paralyzes the party, the possibility of a compromise candidate—now only remote—would increase. At the moment nearly all such speculation centers on Connally. "You couldn't write a better scenario for Connally than what is happening in the Republican presidential campaign," says one of his political aides. But Connally's associates insist that he is making no move to seize the opportunity—yet. He is only giving speeches on college campuses, appearing at party fund raisers, keeping his options open and staying neutral in the Reagan-Ford bloodletting.

Rockefeller also faces unexpected opportunities. He is quietly trying to gain influence over neighboring state delegations in Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New Jersey. Together with New York, they stand to have at least 300 uncommitted delegates, out of 1,130 needed to nominate. Rocky's aim is to keep those delegates in Ford's camp or, if the President appears to be losing, prevent them from stampeding to Reagan—and then use them as bargaining chips for his still unclear purposes.