Nation: Kennedy's Lead Is Shrinking

• Share

A TIME poll shows Carter is within ten points of his rival

As long as Senator Edward M. Kennedy was not a candidate for the presidential nomination, he held a 2-to-1 lead over Jimmy Carter in most public opinion surveys. But now, just as he has officially declared his candidacy, his lead has been reduced to only ten percentage points, 49% to 39%. This sharp change is partly a rallying of Southern support behind Carter, partly a growing belief that Kennedy is "too liberal." Kennedy nonetheless remains the strongest Democratic candidate against all Republicans. Matched against Ronald Reagan, the Republican leader by far, Kennedy wins easily. These are among the findings of a survey of 1,027 voters conducted for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly & White Inc. The interviews were held Oct. 23 to 25.

In addition to Carter's marked recovery against Kennedy, the poll shows that the President has also strengthened his position against his possible Republican opponents. In August, Carter trailed Reagan by four percentage points. But in the latest survey, he has regained the lead, 45% to 41%. Similarly, Carter has widened his lead over John Connally from four points in the late summer to 13 points now. Kennedy's advantage over these Republicans is, however, much wider.

Approval of Carter's handling of the nation's affairs has not increased. In fact, confidence in his economic, energy and foreign policies is dismally low (none has a favorable rating higher than 17%).

What has worked in Carter's favor is the trust that voters still have in Carter as a person. His rating in this area is scarcely impressive —voters were evenly divided among those who trust him and those who have doubts—but more voters express doubts about Ted Kennedy than express full trust in him (51% to 45%).

Some people close to Carter seem to be damaging him. The poll shows a highly unfavorable opinion of Hamilton Jordan, with 66% viewing him negatively. In addition. 56% of those surveyed say they are bothered by allegations of illegal drug use among the White House staff. Surprisingly, the President's mother, Lillian Carter, is viewed unfavorably by 55%. But Rosalynn, who some aides in the White House have suggested is taking too prominent a role in the campaign, is quite popular. Among those surveyed, 62% have a favorable impression of her while only 38% say they do not like her.

Kennedy's lead over Carter is based on the public's perception of his leadership ability. The Yankelovich organization asked voters whether the top candidates "would be very strong Presidents" or "not strong Presidents." The net difference between those measures provides a "leadership scale," which Kennedy dominates with a rating of +42 (56% say he would be a strong President and 14% say he would not). Carter, on the other hand, rates —31 on the scale, the lowest of any candidate in the field. Other figures were:

Reagan +14, Connally +5, Baker + 2, Bush -18, Brown -23.