ZIMBABWE RHODESIA: It Seems Like a Miracle

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The irony of the white about-face was reflected most strikingly, perhaps, in Smith's new conciliatory attitude. Speaking in Salisbury last week on the 14th anniversary of Rhodesia's Unilateral Declaration of Independence, Smith astounded many observers by stating, "You can't exclude [the Patriotic Front]. They're going to be part of the country." In an interview with TIME's Trevor Grundy, Smith expressed confidence that whites would survive and prosper under a new black regime, despite the militant, quasi-Marxist statements of the Patriotic Front. Said Smith: "The last thing [black politicians] want to do is to drive out the white farmer or the white man who wants to contribute to the economy."

The sudden shift is less a change of heart or mind in many cases than an anticipation of the economic boom it is hoped will come with peace and legality. There was a glimpse of the future when the Thatcher government last week allowed some of the sanctions to lapse; the remainder will almost certainly be lifted after the British Governor arrives in Salisbury. President Carter, meanwhile, declined to end U.S. sanctions immediately but broadly hinted that he would do so as soon as the Lancaster House Conference reaches a successful conclusion.

Some Rhodesian economists estimate that about $2 billion could flow into the country within 13 months after the final lifting of sanctions. Local whites are now talking less of emigrating and more of enjoying the benefits of the anticipated economic boom. They are raising the prices of their elegant colonial houses once again after a prolonged slump. One example: a $50,000 house in the Salisbury suburb of Highlands, whose value had dropped to $30,000 within the past year, is now selling for $60,000. But some whites take a dimmer view of the future. Says a Salisbury businessman: "The whites are living in a cuckoo land if they think nothing is going to change. The Patriotic Front has already held meetings with the East Germans on how the economy should be run."

Much of Rhodesia's economic future will depend on the political regime that emerges from the elections. With the whites assured of 20 seats, the crucial struggle will take place among the seven or so black factions vying for the remaining 80 seats. These parties are so deeply divided by tribal and personal differences that many observers fear no national leader will emerge and a shaky coalition is inevitable. "God help us if that happens," says a white trade unionist in Salisbury. "Can you imagine Nkomo, Mugabe and the bishop [Muzorewa] in the same Cabinet?"

In fact, that particular coalition is unlikely. Charges of nepotism and influence peddling by his government have tarnished the reputation of the bishop, who is thoroughly detested by the guerrilla leaders. But unless those leaders are willing to join with some moderate blacks in forming a new government, the result could be a mass exodus of panicked whites—or a brutal new civil war among tribal factions.