IRAN: The Shah's Fight for Survival

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Nowhere was concern greater than in Washington. Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Carter's National Security Adviser, telephoned the Shah and told him that he had U.S. backing for whatever he did—in effect, giving him the go-ahead to call in the army. The Administration believes that the military government has given the Shah a temporary reprieve. General Azhari is regarded as an intelligent, sensible administrator and unquestionably loyal to the Shah. "This is not an independent military government," stressed one Administration aide. "It's the Shah's government."

Washington's hope is that if the Shah works skillfully, he can still press ahead with his liberalization program, broaden the base of political participation, root out corruption and ease the social and economic dislocations that plague the country. Said one high-level U.S. official: "The Shah has to persuade the country that he is sincere in his reforms and that however much Khomeini may be respected, the Ayatullah's way would destroy the country. The Shah has got a tremendously long distance to go. He has never had to build support for himself before."

To be effective, Washington believes, the military government will have to remain in control for at least four months. The likelihood of a coalition government after that would depend on whether moderates concede that cooperation with the Shah is better than the risk of an entrenched military regime—or of chaos.

In the end, say Western observers, whether the Shah stays or goes will probably depend on himself. A complex man of deep and varying moods, he could in a streak of despondency suddenly decide to give up, leaving a divided Iran that might well face civil war. Diplomats who saw him last week found him in better spirits than before the military changeover; fatigue and strain showed in ( his face, but he was not cracking. Indeed, he appeared to be spurred on by anger over what he feels was the deception and gross negligence of former friends and officials, like Hoveida, on whom he counted to help build his dream of a modern nation. These men should not languish in comfort and luxury, supporters say, while he lives through the most perilous time of his reign.

The Shah's ambitious modernizing programs created a new-rich class in Iran; many of these people have left with their money. Now he must make himself credible to millions of Iranians who did not share in the country's petroleum-fueled prosperity. At the moment it is doubtful whether in a free referendum he could win a majority to remain as monarch. Still, few can envision Iran without a Shah of some kind or other. "If this one should go," says an Iranian intellectual, "there will soon be another to take his place."

At week's end it looked as though the Shah had a fighting chance to survive. But as one Western diplomat observed: "If the Shah with the help of the military still fails to implement reforms, he's finished. It's not an exaggeration to say that he's now right on the edge of the precipice, with one false step sending him hurtling to the bottom."