Election '82: Trimming the Sails

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Faced with worrisome economic questions and no clear answers, the voters sought the safety of the center. Neither party could claim a mandate, but both made the usual exaggerated morning-after victory statements. "It is a disastrous defeat for the President," said House Speaker Tip O'Neill. "We are very pleased with the results," pronounced Reagan. But each also stressed that he recognized the need to work together now. "There has to be some bending on both sides," said O'Neill. "There have been concessions and compromises in both directions on all the major issues," Reagan said, "and we expect to continue to work with the Congress in that way."

The Democrats will have a 103-member majority in the 435-seat House. Defeated last Tuesday were 26 Republican incumbents, 14 of them freshmen who were elected on Reagan's long coattails in 1980. The Democrats lost only three incumbents, losses that were balanced by Democratic gains in new seats or ones where incumbents retired. Overall, the popular vote for House members was split 57% to 40% in favor of the Democrats.

The magnitude of the Democratic shift in the House was larger than originally expected by the Republicans, who in the first blush of Reagan's landslide 1980 victory had harbored hopes of capturing the chamber this year. Since World War II, the average loss in a mid-term election by a party that has just won the White House is twelve; the Democrats under Jimmy Carter lost eleven in 1978. In fact, not since 1922 has a party lost as many seats in its first mid-term election.

The G.O.P.'s House losses were counterbalanced by its ability to keep its 54-to-46 Senate T majority intact. Only two incumbents lost: Democrat Howard Cannon of Nevada and Republican Harrison Schmitt of New Mexico.

Two open seats switched hands when Republican Paul Trible triumphed in Virginia and Democrat Frank Lautenberg won in New Jersey.

But the significance of the Senate voting was hidden; it was less in the outcomes than in the margins. "The Democrats came within a whisker of having a landslide," said Wendell Ford. Democratic incumbents won handily, most rolling up wins of 20 points or more. If the Democrats had picked up about 43,000 votes in five states (Virginia, Rhode Island, Missouri, Nevada, Vermont), they would have taken control of the Senate. Republican moderates, such as John Chafee of Rhode Island, Lowell Weicker of Connecticut, John Danforth of Missouri and Robert Stafford of Vermont, barely withstood strong challenges. The fact that they finally won will ensure the survival of the party's moderate wing; the fact that they came so close to losing will cause colleagues to assert their independence of a President whose policies proved a burden at the polls.

The Democratic successes were most obvious in Governor's races. Stressing Republican responsibility for the recession, Democrats won seats from retiring Republicans in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Alaska and Ohio. They also upset incumbents in Arkansas, Nebraska, Nevada and Texas. In all, the Democrats captured seven more governorships, to bring their total to 34. They also will control both houses of 34 state legislatures, six more than they do now.