Election '82: Trimming the Sails

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In fact, the limited nature of the Democratic victory contained a silver lining for some party members. Tip O'Neill was privately relieved that Robert Michel was returned, because Democrats feel he is not an unbending ideologue. Other Democrats also professed some relief that they did not take a slim majority in the Senate, and thus face having to initiate their own alternative programs. Says Democratic Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts: "It's better not to give Reagan a Democratic Congress to run against. And by being in the wilderness for another two years, we will be a stronger party. The rethinking process must go on."

It is less clear how Reagan will interpret the new political alignment. California Democratic Congressman Tony Coelho recalls that in Reagan's second term as Governor, when the Democrats took control of the legislature, Reagan moderated his policies in order to pass some far-reaching bipartisan initiatives. Says Coelho: "He'll be forced to do the same in Congress." Indeed, the accommodation he reached with the House leadership last August on the $99 billion tax hike illustrates that he can compromise. As the President said the day after the elections: "The truth of the matter is, we've had some mid-season course changes."

But Reagan did not give any substantive signals that he will moderate his course, either as he watched the election returns or in subsequent White House meetings on the budget. He followed the results with his closest advisers and their wives in the family quarters at the White House, the guests balancing plates of beef stew as they watched the network reports. "Hey, look at that!" he said excitedly when an exit poll showed that half of the voters felt the President's program needed more time to work. This view became the prism through which he interpreted the night's returns. Other than a few individual disappointments ("Gosh darn it," he muttered when Nebraska Governor Charles Thone lost), Reagan was satisfied with the results. "There was nothing to suggest a need to change the basic course," said Counsellor Edwin Meese, expressing Reagan's sentiments

Nor did the President indicate any desire to moderate his views during last Wednesday's meetings on the fiscal 1984 budget, to be submitted in January. Said one top aide: "He will submit a budget completely consistent with his program and philosophy, and it will probably get shot down pretty quickly." Reagan appears still adamant on the two key budget issues: not raising new taxes and not trim ming the increase in defense outlays. But in his Saturday radio broadcast, he did emphasize: "Jobs must be our most urgent priority."

The President's dealings with the 98th Congress could take one of three paths: forging a coalition with conservative Democrats, negotiating a true bipartisan consensus, or settling for a standoff. The first would by pass the congressional leader ship by working with Boll Weevil Democratic defectors, much as Reagan did to pass the budget and tax cuts in the past. White House Chief of Staff James Baker claims that despite last week's defeats, the President still has a pool of 245 sympathetic Congress men to draw upon to reach a 218-vote majority.