Election '82: Trimming the Sails

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But most Congressmen of both parties scoff at the notion that the tenuous coalition with the Boll Weevils, which did not hold together on the tax-hike vote last Au gust, could possibly be assembled now that there is a 103-seat Democratic majority. Most of the incoming freshmen are more liberal than their colleagues. In a survey of the new members by the New York Times, 83% favored cutting back scheduled in creases in defense spending, 62% pro posed canceling next July's tax cut, 89% opposed trimming Social Security cost-of-living increases, and 58% opposed additional reductions in domestic social programs. Nor is there a solid guarantee that the Republican Senate would line up behind Reagan if he eschews compromise. Nineteen Republicans are up for re-election in 1984, compared with twelve this year. Says moderate Republican William Cohen of Maine, who is one of them: "The Senate is going to be more independent next year."

The second approach offers what both sides profess to want: a coalition including Democratic as well as Republican leaders. Says Republican Senator Robert Packwood of Oregon: "To the extent the President wants to get part of his program, he has to give. Now that he has a House that's adverse, there have to be negotiations." Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker feels compromise will be especially important on the defense budget. Says he: "There certainly will be a major effort to trim defense spending, and it will be cut more than the Administration wants."

For Reagan to achieve a coalition supported by the congressional leader ship, he would have to set aside some of his hard-line ideology. On the most important issue of all, controlling the deficit, the Democrats will demand that military spending cuts and tax increases accompany any trims in social programs and entitlements. If Reagan will not budge on these points, it seems likely that the two sides will run into a stalemate.

A true showdown between the President and Congress would cripple any chance of producing a workable budget. Such paralysis would convince private investors that the Government will not be able to control the deficit, interest rates would rise and the economy would suffer.

If such a stalemate occurs, Reagan may try to use Congress as a scapegoat in his 1984 campaign. Aides say that he is already thinking about his re-election bid, and last week he persuaded Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt, a close personal friend, to be the honorary chairman of the Republican National Committee. Others are also looking ahead. Kennedy used his easy race in Massachusetts to flood New England with a series of five-minute ads designed to dispel questions about his personality and character. Senator John Glenn of Ohio will get a boost in building a campaign organization by the election of his friend Celeste as Governor. Former Vice President Walter Mondale spent part of Tuesday evening phoning winners to of fer his congratulations. And Republican Senator Dole, in election-night network interviews, continued to stake out his role as a moderate and conciliator in the G.O.P. in what many see as an attempt to position himself for the presidency should Reagan decide not to run.