Middle East: A More Visible Presense

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At the heart of the dispute is the question of the future of the occupied territories. Under the Camp David accords, the U.S. is committed to the achievement of "autonomy" for the West Bank and Gaza Strip, whose population is overwhelmingly Palestinian. President Reagan proposed in September that the West Bank be linked to Jordan in a confederation. There are increasing signs, however, that while the Begin government accepted the principle of autonomy at Camp David, it is in fact aiming for the outright annexation of the West Bank. According to a research project conducted by Meron Benvenisti, a former deputy mayor of Jerusalem, and completed earlier this year, Israel already exercises direct ownership of 27% of the West Bank. But by using an old statute from the days of the Ottoman Empire, it has managed to gain access to as much as 65% of all West Bank land. Israel's stated goal is to have 100,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank, an increase of 76,000, by 1987. The U.S. believes that as long as Israel continues on this expansionist course the peace process is doomed.

The Reagan Administration is much more encouraged by recent events in Lebanon, where Gemayel has moved aggressively to restore his country's ties with the Arab world and to strengthen the tenuous links between Lebanese Christians and Muslims. During a visit to Morocco last week, he declared that he and King Hassan II were in agreement on various Arab problems over which "we are all suffering." Gemayel said that he would soon visit other Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. Gemayel's motives are commercial as well as political. As a Lebanese businessman explained: "Beirut prospered as the commercial and financial center of the Arab world. Lebanon cannot survive without its Arab connections."

This policy has dismayed the Israelis, who had hoped to forge an active partnership with a Lebanese government headed by Amin Gemayel's brother Bashir, who was slain nine days before his scheduled inauguration as President two months ago. Perhaps more serious than the disappointment of the Israelis, from Gemayel's point of view, is the dissatisfaction of some members of the Lebanese Forces, the Phalangist-dominated organization of Christian militias that was once headed by Bashir. Many Phalangists resent Amin's attempts at conciliation with the Muslims, and they oppose an effort by his government to gain emergency powers for the next eight months.

Until last week, the Lebanese Forces were unchallenged as the dominant military group in East Beirut, while the fledgling Lebanese army had taken over the security of Muslim West Beirut. But Gemayel was anxious to exert the authority of the central government over East as well as West Beirut. And so, at midweek, he sent the Lebanese army into the eastern sector of the city along with elements of the multinational force.

In Jerusalem, meanwhile, the Israeli government's commission of inquiry continued its investigation of the massacre in two Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut. At least 400 civilians are known to have died at the hands of Lebanese Christian militiamen whom the Israeli military authorities allowed to enter the Palestinian camps. The number of victims may be much higher: there are persistent reports in Beirut that as many as 1,000 residents of the camps are still missing.