West Germany: A Bid for Better Relations

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The bitter reaction of West Europeans to the new grain sales may have had an effect on Washington. U.S. officials have recently been holding talks in Washington with West European counterparts aimed at a compromise that would end the current U.S. sanctions. The Administration is said to be pressing for a unified alliance policy of strict credit limitations, along with a tightening of COCON, the joint U.S.-European list of military technology barred from export to the East bloc, and its extension to strategically sensitive industrial technology, like oil-drilling equipment. West European sources in Bonn maintain that agreement is close on a compromise package, though both Great Britain and France have firmly stated their unwillingness to make concessions to the U.S. on more stringent trade guidelines. The proposed formula reportedly would bar European involvement in a second pipeline project.

Both U.S. and West German officials B would like to announce some kind of accord during Kohl's visit. But the Chancellor cannot cozy up too close to Washington for fear of alienating restive political factions at home that are wary of Washington's belligerent stance toward Moscow. In addition, the Kohl government is unlikely to risk exacerbating West Germany's acute unemployment (now 7.9%, the jobless rate is expected to reach a record 9.5% this winter) by cutting back on East-bloc trade, which accounts for 6% of West Germany's annual export revenues. A key reason: Kohl has pledged to call elections next March 6, and if he is to win, he cannot afford further economic deterioration.

So far, at any rate, the Chancellor is unwavering in his support for the planned NATO deployment of U.S.-made cruise and Pershing II missiles, which will begin as early as next year (see following interview). But the economic squeeze has forced him to trim military programs that the U.S. would like to see in place. Kohl's government has already cut benefits for West Germany's 495,000-man Bundeswehr, NATO's largest European conventional army. And though U.S. General Bernard Rogers, NATO's Supreme Commander, would like Bonn to pick up the tab for building a new forward-base system for 300,000 U.S. troops along the East German and Czechoslovak borders, West Germany has effectively bowed out of the scheme.

The West Germans have managed to avert a trade war with the U.S. by a last-minute decision two weeks ago to accept Administration limitations on West European steel exports to the U.S. Even so, the constraints on Kohl in sprucing up the relationship with Washington are considerable. If he is to be more than an interim caretaker, he will have to find ways to ease West Germany's inflation rate of 5.5% and a projected budget shortfall of $16 billion next year. Since Helmut Schmidt removed himself last month as a prospective Social Democratic candidate for Chancellor in the coming elections, Kohl will have a good opportunity to prove his leadership. If he falters, recently elected S.P.D. Leader Hans-Jochen Vogel, a potential candidate for Chancellor and a man who would like to move his party to the left, could benefit enormously. That is a possibility both Washington and the current government in Bonn would prefer to avoid . — By Russ Hoyle. Reported by Roland Flamini/Bonn