Bidding for a Bigger Role: Syria seeks to become the prime Arab power

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way until it reaches the intestines, then returns only to be reinserted."

The repression has increased the level of discontent, but not active opposition. Assad, moreover, has cultivated an almost fail-safe system against coups. Alawites occupy key posts in the party and the military. The armed forces are under separate command from the Mokhabbarat and the Saraya al Difa. Though Defense Minister Tlas is a Sunni, only Alawite officers are empowered to move strategically placed troops. Outfitted with the best equipment, Rifaat's 15,000-strong forces are stationed almost entirely around Damascus.

A more serious threat to the regime may be the country's worsening economy. Plummeting oil revenues and bad harvests have drained foreign reserves. According to an International Monetary Fund report, Syria's total reserves (excluding gold) dropped from $927 million in mid-1981 to $40 million by early 1982. Electricity is now rationed nationwide. Though unemployment figures are not released by the government, more people are out of work than a year ago and inflation is on the rise. Syrians may not be going hungry, but foreign imports, including television sets and kitchen appliances, have been drastically cut. Consequently, the black market has exploded into the open, and corruption has become more rampant than ever. Even senior government officials openly smoke the Marlboros that can only be bought illegally.

Assad's task of governing is complicated by the fact that while Damascus may be the oldest continuously inhabited city in the world, Syria is a relatively new country, where sectarian identities compete with national loyalties. The old and the new clash constantly: in the capital, women in black veils brush shoulders with secretaries wearing cheap knockoffs of West European fashions, while in the countryside the horse-drawn plow has yet to give way to the tractor. The contrast can sometimes be disconcerting. At graduation ceremonies for the "Revolutionary Youth" group, teen-age girls still demonstrate their newly acquired survival skills by biting live snakes behind the head to kill them and then cooking the reptiles over a campfire, to the delight of guests. Yet TV antennas bristle over biblical villages, and favorite programs include such U.S. fare as BJ and the Bear and Quincy.

Assad's primary way of cementing Syrian loyalty remains the Arab cause, as it was Gamal Abdel Nasser's way in Egypt a quarter of a century ago. "The masses pride themselves on the fact that under Assad, Syria has been in the forefront of the struggle against Israel," says a Western observer in Damascus. One theory has it that the last thing Assad wants is a settlement with Israel; only by remaining at daggers' point with Jerusalem can the Syrian President justify the military machine that safeguards his government. Says an Arab editor in Beirut: "If peace suddenly broke out, the foundations of Assad's regime would be pulled out from under him." The prevailing view, however, is that Assad welcomes a solution, but only on his terms and at his pace. Says a Western foreign policy analyst in Damascus: "He is looking for an agreement that will assure his place in the Arab pantheon."

In a sense, Assad has already achieved his primary goal: Syria is at the fulcrum of events in the region. Israeli intelligence