Turnaround on Two Fronts

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Morale soars with a victory over Iraq and growing stability

Not since the first spring of their revolution three years ago had Iranians seemed so self-confident. "It is time for you to count on the great power of the Iranian nation in this region," Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi proclaimed to the crowds that thronged to Imam Hossein Square in downtown Tehran to commemorate the founding of the Islamic Republic. Moussavi's exuberance was understandable: for the first time since Iraqi Strongman Saddam Hussein launched his invasion of Iran's oil-rich Khuzistan province 18 months ago, Iran could boast that it had gained the upper hand on the battlefield. Appropriately, the places of honor at the rally went to the front-line heroes and wounded soldiers of Iran's bitter struggle with its neighbor.

The sudden prospect of an all-out military victory cheered Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini's countrymen at a time when the government appears to have finally consolidated its powers. Until recently, political stability seemed beyond reach. Power struggles had racked virtually every sector of the government, and the economy was on the brink of ruin. An assassination campaign by leftist Mujahedin guerrillas claimed the lives of nearly the entire top tier of the government last year. Most costly of all has been the war with Iraq, which bled off $7 billion, or an estimated 17% of the government's annual budget. But the war also provided a strong rallying point for the nation. Says a Middle Eastern diplomat in Tehran: "The Iraqis gave [Iran's leaders] a chance to unite the people. The war gave the revolution the perfect means to hide some serious social and economic problems."

The Iranian offensive that altered the course of the war was dubbed "undeniable victory," and it proved to be quick and efficient. In a well-coordinated six-day campaign late last month, Iran's armed forces recaptured some 850 sq. mi. of territory in Khuzistan, all but decimating the Iraqi Fourth Army. Although the Iraqis had expected the operation, they were nevertheless caught off guard. Brigadier General Khatab Omar Najim, commander of the 60th Iraqi Armor Brigade and now an Iranian prisoner of war, told a group of Western correspondents that on the second day of the offensive, his front lines were resisting a moderate assault when suddenly his headquarters in the rear came under attack. "My entire staff was captured," he said. Iranian military officials claim to have inflicted 20,000 casualties and captured 15,500 Iraqi troops of a force that initially numbered 75,000.