Walter Mondale: Getting a Second Look

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Even if Mondale winds up losing after all? Yes, says Matthew Flynn, Democratic Party chairman in Wisconsin, where the party is struggling to maintain its shaky hold on the state legislature. "If Mondale picks up even five points, we could hang on to those seats," says Flynn. "If he gets blown out, there's no way we can hold on. So it's terribly important to us how he does relatively as well as absolutely." All this recalculation, however, assumes a reversal of the candidates' histories: Mondale repeatedly failed to sustain momentum during last spring's primary campaign, while Reagan recovered convincingly from early setbacks in both 1976 and 1980.

Reagan's efforts to do so again were boosted, then apparently set back, by Vice President George Bush last week. In a televised debate in Philadelphia Thursday night with Mondale's running mate, Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro, Bush presented the Administration's case more ably than Reagan had four nights earlier. Indeed, though Ferraro also argued impressively, most analysts gave Bush a slight edge (see following story). But the next day, Bush squandered some of the benefits with one of the silliest blunders of the campaign. After a rally in Elizabeth, N.J., on Friday, a television boom mike caught him whispering to a longshoreman that "we tried to kick a little ass last night." Realizing that the mike was on, the Vice President then exclaimed, "Whoops! Oh, God, he heard me! Turn that thing off."

At a press conference in Birmingham later in the day, Bush proceeded to dig himself in deeper. Asked to confirm the wording of his remark, he replied, "I didn't use 'a little' " (the tape established that he had, though). He agreed that he had used "an old Texas football expression" and added, "I stand behind it." He would not apologize to Ferraro, he said, because the remark was not aimed at her. "It was a way of assessing victory. She would understand this. She's a good competitor." Ferraro's comment: "I would not address my opponent in the same way."

No matter how many Republican hearts Bush's debate performance may gladden, or how many Republican faces Bush's gaffe may redden, campaigns rarely if ever turn on the performances of running mates. The chief effect of the Democratic surge last week has been to set up the second and final Reagan-Mondale debate, scheduled for Sunday night in Kansas City, as perhaps the decisive event of the campaign. A strong performance by Reagan could silence the whispers about his age and competence and squelch any swing to Mondale well before it reaches the danger point. But a second Mondale victory could convert what is still only an incipient erosion of the President's big lead into mass defections. The subject, defense and foreign policy, holds some dangers for the White House. The first debate centered on domestic affairs and the economy, where Reagan could claim credit for some solid accomplishments: rising incomes and low inflation. The President has less to boast about in foreign affairs, and some serious public worries to overcome, notably about the nuclear arms race.