Diplomacy: Beef and Bitter Lemons

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Nakasone's sympathetic attitude will unquestionably help smooth the way for Secretary Shultz's trip to Japan. Shultz is expected to avoid getting specific on trade issues, and instead will emphasize that the U.S. realizes that any changes in Japan's import policies will take time and require difficult adjustments by Japanese society. Some U.S. officials believe that Japan's leadership is getting the message. Says one: "We think they are beginning to appreciate that what is at stake is the future of the open, free international trade system that has benefited them so much."

Shultz has an even tougher task facing him when he reaches Peking a few days later. Because of President Reagan's long-standing sympathy for Taiwan, the Chinese have never really trusted his Administration. In all likelihood Shultz will say as little as possible about Taiwan during his China visit, if only because at the moment the U.S. has nothing more to give. In the Shanghai II communiqué of last August, Peking affirmed its pursuit of the "peaceful reunification" of Taiwan with China, while the U.S. declared that it would hold its arms sales to Taiwan to existing levels and in time would reduce them. The Administration feels that this agreement should have reassured the Chinese, but the distrust lingers.

The hope in Washington is that the Chinese will be willing to concentrate on economic and cultural issues. The Chinese complain that they have received few if any of the U.S. technological benefits promised them in the late 1970s. U.S. officials disagree and argue that the transfer of technology from the U.S. to China has actually risen steadily in the past several years.

The latest flap between the two countries concerns textiles, which accounted for $800 million of China's $2 billion in exports to the U.S. last year. The Chinese were angered this month when the Reagan Administration failed to grant special concessions permitting them to sell more textiles to the U.S. The Peking government retaliated by banning the importation of U.S. cotton, soybeans and chemical fibers. The Chinese were obviously intent on making a political point, but the gesture was not as serious as it would have been if the ban had affected a big trade item like U.S. wheat, which last year accounted for $1 billion of America's $2.7 billion in exports to China.

Before he leaves Peking, Shultz hopes to gain some insight into the current state of China's relations with the Soviet Union. There have been rumors, for instance, that the two Communist superpowers have discussed a possible settlement of their four-year-old dispute over Kampuchea. The agreement reportedly would involve a withdrawal of Soviet-backed Vietnamese troops from Kampuchea, presumably opening the way to an improvement of ties between China and Viet Nam. Any lessening of tension between Moscow and Peking could lead to a reduction in Peking's need for better relations with the West. But the U.S. believes that China's top boss, Deng Xiaoping, is as committed as ever to the economic development of his country. If that is true, then closer ties with the U.S. will remain in China's best interest.