Lebanon: Risky Business

Syria ups the ante again

Shipping arms to the Middle East is like carrying coals to Newcastle, but the news last week still brought shudders. Already a formidable player in the area, Syria will soon boast an even stronger hand. According to U.S. officials, the Soviet Union is preparing to send a new type of mobile battlefield missile, the SS-21, to Syria for the first time. The surface-to-surface weapon, developed in 1976 and never before deployed outside the Warsaw Pact nations, has a range of about 75 miles. Its immediate predecessor, the FROG-7, could go only 40 miles. Armed with the more accurate SS-21s, the Syrians would now be able to reach targets far inside Israel, as well as ships of the U.S. Sixth Fleet off the coast of Lebanon.

The Syrians are already equipped with FROG-7s and the older Scud missiles, along with batteries of SA-5 surface-to-air weapons manned by Soviet military officers. Since the Syrians seem extremely reluctant to risk a direct attack against Israel, the SS-21 deployment is viewed as a political response to the buildup of U.S. naval power along the Lebanese coast. Observed President Reagan during his weekly radio talk last Saturday: "We have to wonder aloud about Syrian protestations of their peaceful intentions."

Meanwhile, the government of Amin Gemayel announced last week that "new difficulties" had prevented Lebanon's multitudinous factions from agreeing on a time and place for their national reconciliation meeting. "New" difficulties? The problems seemed as new as Cain and Abel. If Lebanon's warring sects are given a chance to disagree, they will. This time, Suleiman Franjieh, a former President (1970-76) and one of the leaders of the Syrian-backed National Salvation Front, announced that he would not attend any conference held in Lebanon, while Camille Chamoun, head of the right-wing Christian Lebanese Front, declared that he would not show up at talks convened outside the country.

The solution turned out to be the classic one: appoint a commission to study the dispute. Beirut Radio announced that a steering committee representing the country's sparring groups would meet this week to pave the way for the promised discussions on a fairer division of national power. The compromise came about after a meeting in New York City between Syrian Foreign Minister Abdel Halim Khaddam and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal.

Since the cease-fire accord worked out by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. went into effect two weeks ago, the Syrian government has relentlessly asserted its influence over Lebanese affairs. Faced with Syrian opposition, Gemayel and the U.S. backed away from their suggestion that the U.N. monitor the ceasefire. The latest proposal calls for the observers to be drawn from U.N. forces now in Lebanon, but to keep them outside U.N. jurisdiction. Another alternative: ask nonaligned nations, such as India and Greece, to supply the truce policemen.