AFGHANISTAN: Moscow's Murky Morass

Political troubles, rebel resistance and a China connection

If you assume that the Soviets thought they would improve their situation by invading, then they have miscalculated." So said a State Department analyst last week, commenting on the murky troubles that Moscow may be facing in Afghanistan. Some of the estimated 90,000 Soviet troops in the country fought a fierce skirmish with defecting units of the Afghan army; others were apparently killed or wounded by rebel snipers, not only in the mountain passes but also reportedly in Kabul and other cities. There were unconfirmed rumors from the Afghan capital of widespread looting by Soviet troops, and even of gunfights involving Cabinet members in the government of national unity named by the U.S.S.R.'s puppet strongman, Babrak Karmal. The wildest story was that Karmal had been deposed in favor of former Secret Police Chief Assadullah Sarwari, a hard-line Stalinist.

Even if he still held office, Karmal's position was less than secure. His official photographs have been removed from government offices and public squares, and he has not been seen publicly for the past two weeks. Late last month a surprisingly strong criticism of Karmal's attempts to form a broader political base appeared in the Kabul New Times, a government-run English-language daily. Karmal, who is believed to have ties among both the deposed royal family and the frontier tribes, had included non-Marxists in his government. Knowing that many of the Cabinet members were bitter political enemies, some Western observers in Kabul concluded that the mix was probably unworkable. "Karmal's dilemma is unique," said a diplomat at the time. "To win the people's trust he must distance himself from Moscow. But such a move would be political suicide. The Russians would not stand for it."

Indeed they would not, especially since they had hand-picked Karmal to rule Afghanistan after the overthrow and execution of Hafizullah Amin last December. Karmal did seem to be losing control of events. Early last week, diplomats living near the People's Palace in Kabul heard bursts of machine-gun fire coming from inside the building. This led to speculation that a quarrel had erupted among rival members of the Politburo and had ended in a gunfight. Lending credence to that theory was an official Afghan news agency report a couple of days later that said that Deputy Premier Sultan Ali Kishtmand, a bitter opponent of Sarwari, had been flown to Moscow for emergency medical treatment.