Nation: Two for the Show

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A the week went on. Carter's advisers, reviewing their daily telephone samplings, insisted that their stand was not hurting them as much as had been reported. Says Caddell: "It's the right position. We constantly review it, but every time we come up with the same answer." His counterpart, Reagan Pollster Richard Wirthlin, disagrees, saying that Carter "is wearing a black hat" and will end up taking "a great deal of heat."

A survey completed last week by Louis Harris revealed that 69% of those interviewed wanted a three-way debate. Says Harris: "Carter's refusal to debate makes him the issue rather than Reagan or Anderson. If there is an empty chair, it is going to put Carter in a highly vulnerable position." Former Reagan Strategist John Sears disagrees. Says he: "Carter's right not to want to give Anderson that kind of exposure."

Pollster Daniel Yankelovich thinks Carter is overly fearful of Anderson. Says he: "I really think they are exaggerating the notion that Reagan is the beneficiary of an Anderson gain. And to the extent that it may be so today, it may not be so tomorrow. There are many people leaning toward Reagan who would normally prefer Anderson because they are moderate Republicans."

As this year's primaries have shown, debates can be explosive issues in a campaign. For that reason, there have been only two general election debates in the television era. Richard Nixon agreed to face John Kennedy in 1960 because he felt certain he could show up the Senator's inexperience; the Vice President lost that bet. In 1976, trailing badly in the polls, Ford thought that a debate would reveal Carter's naivete about the Government. The Georgian got at least a draw—and a draw for a challenger is a win, as Carter knows all too well.

Where negotiations on future debates will go from here is still uncertain. Reagan has not yet turned down the three invitations accepted by Carter from groups wanting to sponsor head-on encounters. Says Wirthlin: "We're not of a mind to preclude further debates." But Powell said last week: "There's a growing feeling around here that there may never be a one-on-one debate." The White House believes that Reagan, despite his claims to the contrary, does not want to duel the President. If there is no debate between Carter and Reagan this year, the voters will be deprived of the opportunity of sizing up the two men, head to head, as they project their personalities and discuss their programs.

—By Walter Isaacson

Reported by Christopher Ogden with Carter and Eileen Shields with Anderson