Science: Decoding the Volcano's Message

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All the while, scientists have been gathering data from the living laboratory of Mount St. Helens. Some 200 have been to the mountain, and hundreds of others have applied for permits through a committee of scientists, mainly from the Northwest, who are screening applicants on behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey. The screening process is anything but tranquil as scientists from some 60 universities badger authorities for permission to enter the normally forbidden "red zone" around the foot of the mountain. Some of those denied access have accused the Forest Service and the U.S.G.S. of conspiring to corner data from the mountain, using bureaucratic red tape to keep out competing researchers. One regulation: each investigating team must have a radio operator, a function that is being performed by local hams. But now there are not enough to go around, and scientists must wait days to get one. Moans Portland State's Allen, head of the screening committee: "Dozens and dozens of scientists have been turned away, and we've lost invaluable information during the summer." The hassle has proved too much for Allen. He is stepping down from the committee next week.

Never in history has a volcano exploded with such force before such an array of sophisticated monitoring instruments. The gear even includes a space satellite to measure particulate matter blown into the stratosphere. Yet in spite of all the detection capability, scientists have come away from the mountain basically with confirmations of what they already knew— primarily from observing volcanoes in Hawaii—rather than with any new and startling insights. Says Donald Peterson, the U.S.G.S scientist in charge on the scene: "Everything the mountain has done has been within the realm of our expectations."

Well, not quite. The force of the blast and its timing surprised scientists. They are still not much closer to predicting when a volcano of the St. Helens type will blow; scientists have had much better luck with volcanoes in Hawaii. But the effort has hardly been a waste of time. Says U.S.G.S. Geologist Robert Christiansen: "It has taught us that volcanic hazards are real in the U.S." More probing will be done in November at a NASA conference about the atmospheric and climatic effects of Mount St. Helens, with a view to decoding whatever messages the volcano sent on that fateful May day when the earth opened and the forces of creation were furiously unleashed.

—By John S. DeMott.

Reported by Paul A. Witteman/San Francisco and Jerry Hannifin/Washington