Nation: Taking Those Spot Shots

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Carter and Reagan put their money on prime time commercials

Now comes the $16 million question: Can paid political advertisements on television measurably influence the outcome of the Nov. 4 presidential election? Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan cannot be certain that their TV campaigns will make much difference at all, yet each is gambling roughly that amount in his drive to lure the American voter. For each, the $16 million is more than half of his allotted $29.4 million in total campaign funds—the highest percentage presidential candidates have ever devoted to television. In contrast, Independent John Anderson, who is not sure of getting federal funding, will be fortunate to raise for his entire campaign what the other two will spend on TV alone.

The ad splurges by Carter and Reagan were highly visible last week: shrewd television time buyers in each camp had grabbed spots on NBC'S five-night-long Japanese soap, Shōgun, which soared to spectacular ratings, reaching more than half of all turned-on TV sets—or some 75 million Americans. Reagan spent $75,000 for an opening-night 60-sec. spot. Carter appeared twice later in the week, spending $112,500 on one 60-sec. and one 30-sec. pitch. He may have come out ahead in this scheduling duel since, unlike those of many serial shows, the Shōgun audience grew in later episodes.

The familiar 17-in. image of the President will be seen even more frequently in the weeks ahead. His buyers have booked him into network time every day until Nov. 4. So far, 22 Carter commercials have been completed. Reagan has been airing seven spots, while four more are in production. One on economics is scheduled to appear ten times this week in two different lengths. Reagan's experts estimate that the average TV viewer will see it at least twice. Anderson's handicap has been money. Three Anderson ads were aired this summer and more are planned—if the money is there.

But is viewing a TV ad a useful way for a voter to decide who is to be President? The familiar charge is that candidates are packaged like detergents and voters are manipulated by slick sales techniques. The media men who advise both Carter and Reagan contend that they do neither. All they do, they insist, is to permit their candidates to appear before millions in ways that bring out their best traits, not filtered or diffused by the TV news editor, who often catches a candidate at his worst in a public event, or the print reporter, who interprets what the candidate says.

It helps, of course, when the candidates' TV producers detect promotable qualities in the man they are selling. In the case of Carter and Reagan, the enthusiasm of their media masterminds is unbridled. Says Gerald Rafshoon, the former Atlanta adman who prepares Carter's commercials: "We've got the smartest guy in the race. We're going to play that up." Says Peter Dailey, on leave from his California ad agency to help Reagan: "He is one of the great communicators of his generation. Our only problem is how to get that warmth compressed into 30 seconds of television."