Facing A World of Worries

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Haig belatedly recognized that there can be no real cooling down of the Middle East without some progress toward settlement of the Palestinian question. With the April 25 deadline past, he hopes to get Israel and Egypt to intensify negotiations about autonomy for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. His lieutenants hardly sound hopeful that much will be accomplished. There are worries in Washington that the Israelis may snuff out the diminishing hopes for progress in any negotiations by continuing the process of "creeping annexation" until it becomes a fait accompli. The situation, said one U.S. official last week, "requires presidential leadership to ward off the disasters down the road. I really don't know if Ronald Reagan sees that."

Soviet-U.S. Relations. Despite the bluster from both sides, the two superpowers are negotiating seriously in Geneva, although without results so far, about limitations on theater nuclear weapons in Europe. Although Reagan pledged during his campaign to move for negotiations toward a significant reduction in nuclear arms, aides are only now readying a list of possible negotiating options; they hope to have it on the President's desk next week. If all goes well, he will announce the U.S. position either just before or during his trip to Europe in June. That will be none too early; the Soviets have been playing adroitly on worldwide fears aroused by loose Administration talk about whether the superpowers could survive a limited nuclear war.

Central America. U.S. policy still seems constricted by rigid antiCommunism. Responding to overtures from Mexico and Nicaragua, the Administration in early April offered the Sandinista government in Managua what amounted to a deal: if Nicaragua would pledge to stop fomenting insurrection in neighboring countries (meaning primarily El Salvador), the U.S. would vow not to take actions that could destabilize the regime in Nicaragua, and might even resume economic aid. At the moment, Washington is putting off a Nicaraguan request to open formal negotiations, in part because Haig has been tied up with the Falklands crisis, but also because it is still not convinced that the Sandinistas are really willing to deal.

Cuba. President Fidel Castro has been sending signals that Cuba also wants to talk with the U.S. Not only has the Administration said no, but last week it severely tightened credit restrictions on American businessmen and tourists traveling to Cuba. Some foreign policy experts fear that the Administration is missing an opportunity: Cuba is known to be in deep economic trouble, and Castro may be seriously looking for a way to lessen his country's total dependence on Soviet aid.

Haig last week told a gathering of business executives that Castro was "agonizing" over whether to stay in the Soviet orbit, which would seem to be a substantial overstatement. But Haig and his aides believe that the way to detach Castro from the Soviets, if there is one, is to tighten the American pressure that has isolated Cuba from the rest of the hemisphere. "Whenever we have sat down with Cuba in the past, it has cost us dearly," one ranking U.S. official argues. "The minute we agree to one small concession, they turn around and tell the world we are selling out our friends to Communism."