There He Goes Again: Reagan Will Run

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Reagan probably would not continue the troika system. So he would have to choose a single, powerful chief of staff; the selection would tell a great deal about the direction of a second Reagan Administration. Current betting favorite: Drew Lewis, former Secretary of Transportation and a pragmatic tactician in the Baker mold. Conservative alternative: Secretary of the Interior William Clark, an old Reagan crony who served as chief of staff in California and, not very successfully, as National Security Adviser in Washington. In the Cabinet, George Shultz may bow out as Secretary of State at the end of the first term, presenting Reagan with another fateful prag-matist-conservative choice. Leading candidates: Middle East Envoy Donald Rumsfeld, a non-ideologue, and Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, yet another pal from California days and a reflexive hardliner.

The personnel choices that would leave the deepest imprint on the U.S. for many years to come would involve the Supreme Court. Reagan so far has named only one Justice, Sandra Day O'Connor, but he might be able to nominate several more during a second term. Aides believe he has already settled on three appointments: Clark (whether or not he has become White House chief of staff in the interim), Meese, and William French Smith, probably in that order. All are highly conservative and, if confirmed, might do more to enshrine the New Right's social issues agenda in the law of the land than Reagan ever could by promoting legislation. Says one adviser: "Reagan now knows that this will be the only effective way over the long run to get done what he wants done on 'family' issues."

All of which makes fascinating—to some citizens, frightening—speculation.

For now, there are these certainties: Reagan is running, he remains a master politician, and he will be very hard to beat.

—By George J. Church. Reported by Laurence I. Barrett and Douglas Brew/ Washington