Campaigning by the Numbers

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A TIME poll shows Glenn and Mondale close and Reagan up

While Walter Mondale has more money and a far better campaign organization, John Glenn can take solace in figures. He is running a close second to the former Vice President, and each draws more support from Democrats and independent voters than all of the other contenders for their party's presidential nomination combined. But as the Democrats jostle and jockey on the hustings, the man they seek to unseat remains an elusive and increasingly formidable target. Ronald Reagan, ambling along at his own aw-shucks pace toward announcing for reelection, has perked up his poll ratings with a personal popularity that continues to outpace that of his policies or his party.

These are the main findings of a survey of American voters conducted for TIME by Yankelovich, Skelly & White, Inc. * When Democrats and independents were asked whom they preferred for the nomination, 28% picked Mondale and 26% chose Glenn, essentially the same support that each enjoyed when the summer began. The rest of the pack includes former Senator George McGovern, the 1972 nominee, with 8%; Civil Rights Leader Jesse Jackson, still mulling over whether to announce his candidacy, with 5%; California Senator Alan Cranston with 4%; Colorado Senator Gary Hart with 2%; former Florida Governor Reubin Askew with 2%; and South Carolina Senator Ernest Hollings with 1%. With almost ten months to go before the convention in San Francisco, 23% say they do not yet have a preference.

Among Democrats alone, Mondale leads Glenn, 29% to 25%, but Glenn has a nine-point advantage among independents, who in some states can vote in either party's primaries. Mondale's greatest strength is in the Northeast, where he tops Glenn by 35% to 24%; he trails the former astronaut in the Midwest and South. Mondale is the clear choice of blacks and other minorities, with 32% support, easily beating out Glenn with 12%, and even Jesse Jackson, who currently claims only 23% of that constituency.

At this early stage, the polls tend to reflect heavily the name recognition that each candidate enjoys. Glenn, Mondale, McGovern and Jackson are far better known than the other contenders. In the case of Hart, part of the reason he trails badly in the preference rankings is that 60% of the voters say they are not yet familiar enough with him to form an opinion.