Congress Has Lips Too

J. Bennett Johnston has a message for George Bush. Stripped of the sweet words whispered to any new President during his honeymoon, the bad news is this: Read my lips. You go first.

"The deficit is a time bomb with a lighted fuse," says Johnston, the senior Senator from Louisiana. "Bush's tendered solution, his 'flexible freeze,' is deja voodoo all over again. The idea that we can grow our way out of this mess is absolute nonsense. If Bush really believes he can do what has to be done without cutting into entitlements and defense and without raising at least some taxes, then he's smoking something. And if he thinks we Democrats are going to drag him kicking and screaming into taxland and take all the heat alone, then he's dreaming as well as smoking."

Johnston's is more than merely another voice added to an already deafening chorus. He is a leading power in a body that will be controlled by the Democrats 55 to 45, a Senate that promises Bush greater resistance than Ronald Reagan ever faced. Few if any Senators believe Bush's content-free campaign won him a mandate. And none believe Bush possesses the communications skills that permitted Reagan to pitch successful appeals beyond Congress for public support.

Johnston is also running a highly visible race for majority leader in an election to be held next Tuesday. His prospects are impossible to determine -- the ballot is secret and double crosses are common. But even if he loses to George Mitchell or Daniel Inouye, the other contenders, Johnston's opinions on a range of issues are significant. As a Southern moderate, Johnston is the kind of Senator Bush needs if his programs are to have any hope of passage. And unawed as he is by Bush, Johnston fairly reflects the mood of Congress. "Bush should consider the possibility that ((we will)) keep his promises for him," says New York Democrat Pat Moynihan, reportedly among those supporting Mitchell for majority leader. "And that would destroy his presidency."

The Democrats don't much care how Bush retreats from his no-tax, no-cuts campaign promise, as long as he does so. "The most statesmanlike thing to do in politics," says Johnston, "is to tell the truth during a campaign. After you've concluded that you can't win that way, the second most statesmanlike thing is to borrow from Earl Long and tell the people you lied." Johnston doesn't expect Bush to ape Long, but he does expect him "to set the stage and move by degrees. At some point, possibly under the cover of the National Economic Commission or an economic summit between the White House and Congress, Bush could tank his campaign dribble and say, 'Well, I thought we could do it my way, but it turns out we just can't.' "

The crunch could come in May, when Bush will be in need of Senate votes to raise the national debt ceiling above $2.8 trillion. Like a hanging, a hike in the debt ceiling concentrates the mind. The ceiling will not go up, says Johnston, unless the President "comes to us and swallows hard about raising revenues. When he does that, that's when we'll cooperate."

How could Bush not cave in? If a budget stalemate develops because both the President and Congress hang tough, mandated Gramm-Rudman reductions will force an estimated $40 billion in cuts. Defense, the area Bush most wants to protect, will take half of that blow.