The Bazaar Is Open

The rules for a successful negotiation are pretty straightforward. All sides must want to make a deal, and everyone must come away with something. Last week it looked as if most of the parties in the complex hostage drama were at least talking about a deal. But satisfying everyone poses such a monumental challenge that any solution will take a long, long time -- if it comes at all.

The rapid movement provoked by Israel's kidnaping of Shi'ite Sheik Abdul Karim Obeid has given way to a lengthy process of public posturing and private dickering. Israel offered the Shi'ites a simple swap: your guys (Obeid and 150 Shi'ite prisoners) for our guys (three captured Israeli soldiers), plus the 15 Westerners held hostage. But Jerusalem's agenda is not interchangeable with Washington's: while Israel would probably jump at a deal returning its prisoners, even without the foreign hostages, it would reject any that did not bring home its three soldiers.

The Bush Administration staked out a surprisingly supple position designed to maximize the chances for a successful negotiation without succumbing to an outright trade that would violate American policy against ransoming hostages. George Bush repeatedly made clear his willingness to talk to anyone. "If there are changes taking place, signals that are shifting, I don't want to miss a signal," said the President as he sent forth a stream of messages by television and telex. His main objective: to open a dialogue with Iran, which the Administration believes can influence, though not necessarily deliver, freedom for the hostages.

In a series of interviews and statements aimed at newly elected President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pragmatist considered eager to end the isolation of the Khomeini era and repair his shattered economy, Bush held out the possibility of warmer relations in exchange for help in freeing the U.S. hostages. While Bush did not disavow the Reagan-era prohibition against direct bargaining with terrorists, he shifted ground enough to make some kind of negotiation possible. His private communiques, sent via the Swiss embassy in Tehran and other intermediaries, elicited encouraging replies from Rafsanjani.

Administration officials hope to convince Iran that hostage taking has few benefits and obstructs the potentially lucrative flow of trade and commerce. This includes Iranian assets, estimated by Tehran at $11 billion, that have been frozen since the U.S. embassy in Iran was overrun in 1979. Restoring the flow might give Iran incentive to press for the release of the captives and a halt to terrorism.

The Shi'ite terrorists holding the hostages stated their position the way they often do. In the southern Lebanese town of Qleia, houses shook from the blast of a bomb attack on an Israeli convoy that wounded five soldiers and one militiaman from the Israeli-backed South Lebanon Army. "We'll show them that we are hard food to chew," proclaimed Hizballah's military chief in Beirut. Other terrorists sought revenge for the humiliation of Obeid's kidnaping.