Lebanon A Preview of The Apocalypse

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Only France made some serious attempts to build pressure. In addition to deploying two warships to the region, President Francois Mitterrand dispatched a flood of envoys to Moscow and key Arab League capitals, which command some leverage over Syria. But Mitterrand's diplomacy cut little ice in Lebanon, where France is regarded as an ally of the Maronites, or in Damascus, where France is suspect for its support of Iraq in the gulf war.

At the heart of Lebanon's misery is a 1943 "national pact" reaffirming that the predominance of power would be held by the majority Christian community. Since then, the Muslim population has overwhelmed the Christian count, but the political arrangements have not been altered to reflect the Muslims' strength. Until that imbalance is redressed, tribal hostilities will not cease.

Lebanon's turf war is hopelessly entangled in other conflicts. Aoun and Assad have developed a deep personal animosity. Aoun regards Assad as the head of an occupational force, which must be driven out. Assad, who considers Lebanon part of Greater Syria, has been embarrassed that in the past six months Aoun's smaller forces have held the Muslims at bay. "Assad doesn't want to annihilate the Christians," says retired Israeli Brigadier General Aharon Levran. "He just wants Aoun's head."

Aoun gets help from Iraq, eager to exact revenge for Syria's support of Iran in the gulf war. Baghdad has been shipping weapons to the Christians mainly to gall Syria. Long rivals for hegemony in the region, the two Arab giants seem to be fighting a proxy war on Lebanese soil. The struggle for control of Lebanon is further confused by the power contest in Tehran and the fate of the 15 foreign hostages.

Western leaders are trying to halt the slaughter through international pressure on Assad. The Syrian President does not wish to offend the West when his country sorely needs economic help. Nor can Assad calculate Israel's or Iraq's response to an assault by his troops that would amount to Syrian control of Lebanon.

But both Assad and Aoun seem bent on the same deadly gambit: Damascus hopes the violence will turn Christians against Aoun; the Maronite leader hopes it will bring intervention from the West against Syria. Meantime, it is the people of Lebanon who continue to suffer, particularly those -- Muslim and Christian alike -- who live in Beirut, where the shells have killed almost 800 and wounded over 2,000 since March. The fortunate have fled, paring the city's population from 1.5 million to just 150,000. Those who remain huddle by night in airless underground shelters, listening to the sounds of destruction. Those who venture out by day find their streets overrun by starving dogs and giant rats and occupied by implacable soldiers. "They are murdering the city," says one forlorn resident. The fear is that the remaining people may be murdered as well.