The South Shall Rise Again: Mega Tuesday

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Rather than diminish the clout of Iowa and New Hampshire, the Southern primary may actually enhance it. Only three weeks separate New Hampshire and Mega Tuesday, and recent history shows that victory feeds on itself when the tests come rapid-fire. Says Republican Hopeful Congressman Jack Kemp: "You tell me who wins the New Hampshire primary, and I'll tell you who the Southern regional primary favors." The biggest beneficiary of the Southern primary may not be a centrist candidate like, say, Gary Hart, but the fiery symbol of the party's left wing: Jesse Jackson. While three or four middle-of-the-roaders are divvying up most of the white vote, Jackson could not only pick up a number of white votes but also score heavily among blacks, who make up nearly a quarter of the South's voters. The Jackson factor is cited by one leading contender for the Democratic nomination, New York Governor Mario Cuomo. "If Southern voters do coalesce around a regional candidate, say a (Senator) Sam Nunn (of Georgia) or (former Governor) Chuck Robb (of Virginia), they would strike a real blow," says Cuomo. "But that will be tough, in my mind, for any one candidate to bring off."

As an ethnic New Yorker often tagged as a liberal, Cuomo might seem poorly served by a Southern sweepstakes. But in an interview with TIME Correspondent Robert Ajemian, he insisted that regional issues and loyalties do not count for much in the age of TV. "I don't see a set of fundamental values that make Southerners different from Northerners. Let's use (Massachusetts Governor) Mike Dukakis as an example. What would he talk about? He'd talk about coming from struggle. Southerners would understand that. He'd talk about hard work, values, family. They'd understand that. He'd talk about decent respect for law and order. He'd talk about firmness but kindness too." Substitute the name Mario Cuomo for Mike Dukakis, and you have an idea what the New Yorker might talk about down South in 1988.

By synchronizing one big blowout early in the campaign season, the South risks losing its leverage down the long road to the conventions in July and August. After Mega Tuesday, candidates will have little reason to address Southern voters' concerns until autumn.

Whatever the ultimate consequences of Mega Tuesday, the Southern primary seems likely to inspire imitators in other regions during the coming months. Already politicians in New Jersey and California, whose primaries come last on the campaign trail, are talking of switching from early June to April. South Dakota has already decided to hold a primary in late February, even though the Democratic National Committee has decreed that only Iowa and New Hampshire should be entitled to a February head start. Colorado Governor Richard Lamm, chairman of the Western Governors' Association, last month sent letters to 15 other Governors pushing the idea of a Western regional primary. Says former Democratic Party Chairman Robert Strauss: "Other states are going to think about their schedules, and we'll probably see more changes. It will add to the confusion. This is going to be one son of a gun of an election."